Israel risks falling into the September 11 trap

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Gaza Israel risks falling into the same trap as the US after 9/11 

 

Wolfgang Hansson  

 

This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.  

 

Published 16.28  

 

Anger and revenge are rarely good emotions for rational decision-making.  

 

When Israel is now planning a ground offensive against the terrorist-branded Hamas, it risks falling into the same trap as the US did after the attack on September 11.  

 

Just like al-Qaeda then, Hamas wants Israel to overreact. 

 

 If you listen to the rhetoric of Prime Minister Netanyahu and Israeli generals, it sounds very much like President George W Bush  after the terrorist attacks in New York and Washington in 2001.  

 

The enemy must be crushed and obliterated.  

 

Just as shocked Americans then clamored for retaliation, the Israeli population is doing so now. A completely natural reaction. 

 

Just as the United States received the world's sympathy after the terrorist act, Israel is now riding a wave of support. But when Israel's violence is perceived as disproportionate by the outside world, sympathies will turn into harsh criticism and condemnation. Exactly what happened to the US. 

 

Hamas killed 1400 Israelis in their terror attack, many of them children. Israel has already killed over 3,000 Palestinians, among them at least a thousand children. How many more civilians will die?  

 

The problem for Israel is the same as for the United States. Both al-Qaida and Hamas pursue ideologies that cannot be defeated militarily. Israel can kill as many Hamas leaders as it wants but there will always be new ones.  

 

The US invaded Afghanistan and then Iraq in its fight to eradicate Islamist terrorism. The result was far from what was desired. 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with Israeli soldiers on the border with the Gaza Strip. Photo: Avi Ohayon/Gpo  

 

Weakened the US  

 

On the contrary, it can be argued that the US war on terrorism led to more Muslims around the world becoming radicalized and terror increasing. From al-Qaeda was born a new terrorist movement, the Islamic State, IS even succeeded in temporarily founding the embryo of a state formation.  

 

Nowadays, both IS and al-Qaeda are clearly weakened but definitely not defeated. Their ideas live on and we see how followers around the world act in their name. Most recently, the Swedish murderer in Brussels.  

 

The US was vastly superior militarily but still failed to overcome the Islamist terror.  

 

After 20 years in Afghanistan, the US was forced to leave with its tail between its legs in a chaotic evacuation. For over a year, the Taliban have re-established their Islamist rule. The group is not entirely different from Hamas.  

 

The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have weakened the United States as a major power and made the American people war-weary. 

 

President Joe Biden tried to explain some of these painful lessons to Benjamin Netanyahu when he visited Israel earlier this week, but it's highly doubtful the Israeli prime minister was listening.  

 

Although it took longer than expected, everything indicates that an Israeli ground offensive is at hand. It will mean that scores of Hamas fighters will die but also many innocent civilian Gazans.  

 

Who will rule Gaza?  

 

The result will be that hatred of Israel among Palestinians will increase further. Not only in Gaza but also in the West Bank. We will see the same development throughout the Arab world.  

 

Militarily, Israel will likely succeed. You have a superior military power. Hamas's chance is to conduct guerilla warfare that also inflicts heavy losses on Israel. As Iraqi groups did with their homemade landmines along roads where American troops traveled.  

 

But what happens when Israel succeeds in destroying Hamas' tunnels and weapons caches?

 

Who will rule Gaza then? 

 

Israel cannot simply hand over the area to the Palestinian Authority. They were driven out by Hamas back in 2007 and have neither the capacity nor the will to take over. 

 

Israel hardly wants to take responsibility for just over two million people on a narrow patch of land that it handed over to the Palestinians in 2005.  

 

Does Israel believe that a moderate Palestinian movement that wants peace with Israel will emerge from the humanitarian disaster in Gaza? Hardly likely.  

 

It is significantly more likely that new groups will rise from the ruins whose main goal is to wipe Israel off the face of the earth. 

 

The last war  

 

Netanyahu has said this will be the last war against Hamas. After that, the terrorist-labeled group will be deleted.  

 

The lessons learned from America's war on terror show that this war is likely to be followed by many more unless there is a political solution to the conflict.  

 

Benjamin Netanyahu has for too long pushed the line that Israel can ignore the Palestinians' existence while treating them as second-class citizens. It is impossible to forget two million Palestinians in Gaza and three million in the West Bank. 

 

Only when the Israeli occupation ends and the Palestinians get their own state or another solution is found that both parties can live with, can there be peace.  

 

Hamas can only be defeated by marginalizing their idea of annihilating Israel among the majority of Palestinians.