The climate is "bananas" - yet governments back down

Columnists

IEA, International Energy Council  

 

The climate crisis's catch 22 when temperatures skyrocket  

 

Wolfgang Hansson  

 

This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.  

 

Published 2023-10-05 19:56  

 

Another record month where the warming of our planet goes "completely bananas", to quote a climate scientist.  

 

But also another month where the catch-22 of the climate crisis is becoming increasingly clear.  

 

While there has never been such a rush to reduce emissions, many governments are backing away from their climate goals.  

 

Here is the explanation why. 

 

The figures for the month of September glow red on the climate scientists' maps. Not since the measurements started has such a warm September been measured on the globe. Compared to pre-industrial times, the temperature rise is 1.75 degrees. 

 

In other words, well above the target of 1.5 which was taken at the big environmental meeting in Paris in 2015. One would think that the alarm would cause governments around the world to hold emergency crisis meetings and roll up their sleeves.  

 

Instead, many do just the opposite.  

 

Sweden, which usually prides itself on being best in class, is at least temporarily abandoning its emissions targets by lowering the reduction obligation in car fuel. The government thinks it will be unreasonably expensive for ordinary people to transport themselves with petrol and diesel prices around SEK 20-30 a litre. 

 

In Britain, the Conservative government has pushed forward the date when new cars that run on fossil fuels may no longer be produced. From 2030 to 2035. People cannot afford to buy the expensive electric cars.  

 

In Germany, the coalition government consisting of the Social Democrats, the Green Party and the Liberals has pulled the emergency brake on the rate at which people will be forced to change heating systems in their homes. This is because it is considered to involve unreasonably large costs for private individuals if the transition is too rapid. 

 

September was another record-warming month. Photo: Ryan Sun/AP 

 

Democracy's greatest enemy 

 

In the Netherlands, newly formed farmers' parties have soared in the opinion polls since the government proposed that some arable land should stop being cultivated in order to reduce emissions.  

 

These are just a few examples of how governments in democratic countries have gotten cold feet despite accelerating warming.  

 

A more logical course of action would have been to increase the rate of emission reduction. But it is considered politically impossible. 

 

Here you can say that democracy is the environment's greatest enemy.  

 

In countries where the rulers must be constantly re-elected, an incumbent government will be punished by the electorate if they pass on too large a part of the cost of emission reduction to individual consumers or if the measures are perceived as too extreme.  

 

No matter how much the voters say in opinion polls that they think it is important to reduce emissions to counteract floods, heat waves and sea level rise, the majority still vote with their wallets. Especially in expensive times with high inflation and galloping housing interest rates.  

A woman protects herself from the Paris sun with a parasol, September 6. Photo: Thibault Camus/AP 
 

Stings too much  

 

This means that governments that really push through strong emission reductions are at imminent risk of being thrown out at the next election.  

 

Until now, voters have to some extent pushed for politicians to act against the climate threat. But when one's own private economy is threatened, concern for the climate is easily turned into anger against measures that sting too much.  

 

If you, like the bourgeois government in Sweden, have promised to lower the diesel price by ten kroner at the pump, it will be difficult to be re-elected next time if it is still around kroner 25 a litre. 

Wind power is another example.  

 

Everyone recognizes that wind power is important to replace fossil fuels. But when a wind farm is built in your own vicinity, this insight is changed to anger over ruined views, troublesome noise levels and other things. 

 

It is completely human, but at the same time a huge problem for the world to be able to change.  

 

It is one thing to set ambitious climate goals. Quite another to pay the price to achieve them.  

 

Governments defend themselves by saying that they have not given up their ambitions. Just pushed them a little on the future.  

 

Hole in the head  

 

The hope is that new technology will in the meantime make it easier for the world to implement emission reductions. It could be about portable, offshore wind power far off the coast, more efficient solar panels or carbon dioxide capture.  

 

The IEA, the International Energy Council, points out that the production of batteries, electric cars and solar panels is constantly breaking new records.  

 

A lot is going on, but still the tactic of constantly kicking the can further down the street is fraught with risk. 

 

The IEA already determined two years ago that if the climate target of a maximum of 1.5 percent warming is to be reached, no new oil, gas or coal deposits must be brought into use. 

 

Nevertheless, investments in fossil energy continue. It may seem

A lot is going on, but still the tactic of constantly kicking the can further down the street is fraught with risk.  

 

The IEA already determined two years ago that if the climate target of a maximum of 1.5 percent warming is to be reached, no new oil, gas or coal deposits must be brought into use.  

 

Nevertheless, investments in fossil energy continue.  

 

It may seem like a hole in the head. But if our modern prosperity is not to be endangered, the transition must take place in an orderly manner. The risk is that, in a given situation, there will be a gap in the energy supply when fossil-free energy sources are unable to supply enough energy at the same time as oil and gas have been sharply reduced.  

 

Then there will be an energy shortage and prices will inexorably hit the roof.  

 

To phase out the old and in the new with maximum timing and minimal suffering without the climate tipping over is an almost superhuman task. But still, that's what the world has to succeed at.

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