Middle East Crisis

The state of the world economy
World Bank lowers forecast – oil is pressuring the world economy

The World Bank is lowering its forecast for global growth to 2.5 from 2.6 percent for 2026, the lowest level since the pandemic. This is reported by several media outlets.

Higher energy and import costs in the wake of the war in Iran are highlighted as the reason behind it, writes Bloomberg.

– This is the largest supply shock in more than 50 years, says the World Bank's chief economist Indermit Gill.

The World Bank predicts that fuel oil will cost around $94 per barrel this year, which is around 50 percent higher compared to the last forecast in January. 

Oil Market
Oil prices rise after overnight attacks on Iran

Oil prices rose more than 2 percent on Thursday morning after the US attacked Iran and Iran responded by threatening to stop all traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, writes Bloomberg.

At 05.30, fuel oil was trading above $95 a barrel while North Sea oil was trading closer to $93 a barrel.

Oil prices fell back slightly after the US announced that overnight attacks were over.

Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, tells the news agency that oil prices will likely continue to be volatile as long as there are question marks over the ceasefire.

– The coming days will be crucial for whether diplomatic solutions can take hold again or if the conflict develops into a more protracted escalation.

Strait of Hormuz
Oil exports in the Strait of Hormuz are rising – despite the blockade

Oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz have increased by around 50 percent so far in June. This is shown by recent statistics from the analysis firm Vortexa, writes Bloomberg.

The company estimates that at least 1.8 million barrels of oil per day of non-Iranian oil has made its way out of the waterway during the period, up from the average in May of 1.2 million barrels per day.

At the same time, no Iranian oil was exported through the strait as a result of the blockade imposed by the US, according to Vortexa.