Expert: “A bit of midterm election posturing”

 

Isak Lundholm Larsson

 

Published 07:53 | Updated 08:54

 

Donald Trump at a campaign rally in Greenville on Tuesday. Photo: Matt Ramey / AP / TT

Russia and Ukraine have agreed to new talks with the United States.

At the same time, Trump is facing pressure from bleak forecasts ahead of the midterm elections.

“There is likely some midterm election posturing involved here,” says Jan Hallenberg, an expert on the United States.

According to Reuters, Russia has suggested that the US-led negotiations between the two countries could begin on November 10th, or in the days immediately following, in Abu Dhabi.

The two nations have not held discussions since the war began, and this breakthrough comes after a period during which the relationship between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy has deteriorated significantly. Trump is only weeks away from the crucial midterm elections, where forecasts have looked grim—potentially leading to the Republicans losing control of Congress.

“There is likely both some midterm election posturing and a certain degree of seriousness here,” says Jan Hallenberg, Professor Emeritus of Political Science at the Swedish Defence University.

“Completely absurd”

The US expert notes that while Trump wants an end to the war, the former president would have preferred to use the previous agreement drafted last year. That agreement, which initially consisted of 28 points, was heavily weighted in Russia’s favor.

“One of the points, for instance, is that the Russians would take over the Donbas—a region they have not actually conquered. Trump claims that Zelenskyy is a greater obstacle to peace than Putin. And that is just completely absurd.” 

Trump’s Weakness

Jan Hallenberg links the deterioration in the relationship to a phone call between Putin and Trump on October 9th. Following that call, developments included the major diesel deal with Russia.

“Putin clearly had specific talking points. One of them was likely his perennial refrain—that the Russians are advancing on every front and the Ukrainians stand no chance.”

Jan Hallenberg notes that Trump has a soft spot for “wealthy and powerful people.”

“He views this concept of a triumvirate—involving China and Russia—as an interesting take. In this context, he sees Zelenskyy as a small-time player.”

Trying to Expedite the Process

The diesel deal, along with Trump’s decision to block a major sanctions package against Russia, has prompted some Republicans back home to speak out and challenge him.

“One possibility is that if Trump suffers a major defeat in the midterm elections, Congress might gain more influence over the issue of Ukraine—I wouldn’t rule that out.”

Do you think Trump is trying to speed up the process because of the election?

“That’s part of this whole messy situation. Add to that Putin’s powers of persuasion, Trump’s limited knowledge, and his tendency to be swayed by whoever he spoke to last.”