fredag 1 november 2024
The Middle East crisis
The Middle East crisis Israel-Iran
Analysis: Victory for Trump could shake up both Iran and Benjamin Netanyahu
A victory for Donald Trump in the US presidential election in a few days would be bad for Iran and its allies. That's what Samia Nakhoul and Parisa Hafezi write in an analysis in Reuters.
They write, among other things, that Trump could give the green light to Benjamin Netanyahu to attack Iranian nuclear facilities and carry out targeted assassinations on Iranian soil. Extended sanctions against the country's oil industry are also a concern.
"This potential change in US leadership could have far-reaching consequences for the balance of power in the Middle East and could reshape Iran's foreign policy and economic prospects," they write.
Amos Harel at Haaretz is also of the opinion that a Trump victory will reshuffle the cards in the Middle East. A new administration is expected to begin by focusing heavily on domestic politics and the shift in power, which leaves less time and energy to deal with the crisis in the Middle East.
Although Netanyahu is "invested in a Trump victory," there are aspects of Trump in power that worry him, Harel writes. That Trump appealed for peace in Lebanon and that vice-presidential candidate JD Vance called Iran's nuclear power project Israel's problem are two examples.
Analysis: Victory for Trump could shake up both Iran and Benjamin Netanyahu
A victory for Donald Trump in the US presidential election in a few days would be bad for Iran and its allies. That's what Samia Nakhoul and Parisa Hafezi write in an analysis in Reuters.
They write, among other things, that Trump could give the green light to Benjamin Netanyahu to attack Iranian nuclear facilities and carry out targeted assassinations on Iranian soil. Extended sanctions against the country's oil industry are also a concern.
"This potential change in US leadership could have far-reaching consequences for the balance of power in the Middle East and could reshape Iran's foreign policy and economic prospects," they write.
Amos Harel at Haaretz is also of the opinion that a Trump victory will reshuffle the cards in the Middle East. A new administration is expected to begin by focusing heavily on domestic politics and the shift in power, which leaves less time and energy to deal with the crisis in the Middle East.
Although Netanyahu is "invested in a Trump victory," there are aspects of Trump in power that worry him, Harel writes. That Trump appealed for peace in Lebanon and that vice-presidential candidate JD Vance called Iran's nuclear power project Israel's problem are two examples.
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The Middle East crisis The Gaza war
Israel: One of the last Hamas stops has been killed
Israel has killed Hamas leader Izz al-Din Kassab, the IDF says on X.
The military describes him as one of the last high-ranking Hamas members, responsible for coordinating with other terror groups in Gaza.
Hamas confirms to Reuters that Kassab has been killed. They call him a local commander, but not a member of the decision-making political branch.
Israel: One of the last Hamas stops has been killed
Israel has killed Hamas leader Izz al-Din Kassab, the IDF says on X.
The military describes him as one of the last high-ranking Hamas members, responsible for coordinating with other terror groups in Gaza.
Hamas confirms to Reuters that Kassab has been killed. They call him a local commander, but not a member of the decision-making political branch.
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The Middle East Crisis Israel-Hezbollah
Anger in Lebanon: Israel does not want a ceasefire
Israel's new attacks on Lebanon are harshly criticized by the country's Prime Minister Najib Mikati, writes AFP. Beirut's southern suburbs were hit by at least ten attacks overnight Friday, according to AFP. Airstrikes have also been carried out in Baalbek in eastern Lebanon.
Israel's defense force, the IDF, states that the attacks were aimed at Hezbollah and Shia militia strongholds in the country. According to Mikati, the attacks are a sign of the Israeli government's reluctance to bring about a ceasefire.
The attacks come just a day after the country's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with US officials to discuss a ceasefire in Lebanon.
Anger in Lebanon: Israel does not want a ceasefire
Israel's new attacks on Lebanon are harshly criticized by the country's Prime Minister Najib Mikati, writes AFP. Beirut's southern suburbs were hit by at least ten attacks overnight Friday, according to AFP. Airstrikes have also been carried out in Baalbek in eastern Lebanon.
Israel's defense force, the IDF, states that the attacks were aimed at Hezbollah and Shia militia strongholds in the country. According to Mikati, the attacks are a sign of the Israeli government's reluctance to bring about a ceasefire.
The attacks come just a day after the country's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with US officials to discuss a ceasefire in Lebanon.
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The Middle East crisis The reactions
Internal calls on the BBC - criticism of Gaza coverage
101 BBC employees accuse the media house of pro-Israel bias in a letter to chief executive Tim Davie, The Independent reports.
A total of 230 people in the media industry have signed the letter, which calls on the BBC to "restore fairness and impartiality".
Among other things, the signatories demand that the BBC should emphasize that Israel does not give foreign journalists access to Gaza, clarify when there is insufficient evidence for Israel's claims and ask tougher questions of the country's government and military.
A spokesperson for the BBC states that it is transparent about all errors and limitations in reporting.
Internal calls on the BBC - criticism of Gaza coverage
101 BBC employees accuse the media house of pro-Israel bias in a letter to chief executive Tim Davie, The Independent reports.
A total of 230 people in the media industry have signed the letter, which calls on the BBC to "restore fairness and impartiality".
Among other things, the signatories demand that the BBC should emphasize that Israel does not give foreign journalists access to Gaza, clarify when there is insufficient evidence for Israel's claims and ask tougher questions of the country's government and military.
A spokesperson for the BBC states that it is transparent about all errors and limitations in reporting.
The election in the United States
The election in the United States Votes on the election
Analysis: A draw cannot be ruled out
With just four days left until the US election, polls indicate it could end either way. Despite the uncertain situation, the Washington Post's Aaron Blake tries to figure out seven likely scenarios.
Blake outlines different paths that the respective presidential candidates can take to win the election. For example, that Kamala Harris takes home the so-called blue states, or that Donald Trump pinches the wave master states on the east coast.
Blake's last scenario deals with the fact that the election could end in a tie, that is, the candidates get 269 electors each.
"It is probably the least likely outcome, but with pretty much everything on the table, it cannot be ruled out," he writes in the analysis.
The New York Times' Michelle Goldberg writes an analysis based on Donald Trump becoming the next president of the United States. Goldberg writes that her biggest fear is that Trump will stick to his promise to carry out "the largest deportation in US history" and what that will mean in terms of protests and potentially violent responses.
"But even if the unthinkable happens, it won't all happen at once," she writes.
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The election in the United States • The electoral movement
Anxiety in Ukraine ahead of the election: "Can't handle this by ourselves"
Regardless of who becomes the next president of the United States, the election results will have a major impact on Ukraine's future. Kamala Harris has promised continued military support to the country, a scenario that is less likely if Donald Trump is victorious.
The BBC has spoken to several Ukrainians who are concerned about the result.
- We hope that the woman, Kamala Harris, wins and supports us, says Inna in the city of Zaporizhzhya.
Ukrainian soldier Andrej says that he and his colleagues are nervous. The Ukrainian army is largely dependent on the support of the outside world in the war against Russia. If US support is withdrawn or reduced, the entire burden would fall on the shoulders of the Ukrainian infantry, Andrej says.
- We will fight with what we have, but everyone knows that Ukraine cannot handle this on its own.
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The election in the United States The electoral movement
Europe's Greens call on "their" candidate to drop out
Skip the election and get behind Kamala Harris. That call sends green parties from 16 European countries to Jill Stein, who is running for president of the Green Party of the United States.
“Kamala Harris is the only candidate who can stop Donald Trump and his anti-democratic, authoritarian policies from reaching the White House. The election takes place at a decisive moment for the history of our planet," the parties write.
Stein is on the ballot in almost all of the most important states and gets just over 1 percent in the polls, writes Politico. In the swing states, those votes could potentially make the difference.
But it is unlikely that Stein will heed the demand, not least because the relationship between Europe's greens and the US greens is strained.
Latest news
Political situation in Turkey
Erdogan sues Istanbul mayor for defamation
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is suing Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu for defamation, reports AFP.
In the lawsuit, Imamoglu is accused of making "baseless accusations including defamation" and "acting with the aim of humiliating the president before the public" in a speech at a demonstration. It is not clear which statements are referred to.
Imamoglu, who belongs to the opposition, is seen as one of Turkey's most popular politicians and Erdogan's main political rival. He is expected to stand in the next presidential election in 2028.
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The Japan-China relationship
Strengthened cooperation between the EU and Japan after threats
The EU and Japan are strengthening cooperation in security matters, AFP reports. Japan and the Union will, among other things, carry out more joint defense exercises.
According to Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya, the new cooperation is due to "a challenging security environment". He did not specifically mention China, but Japan's government has previously spoken of the neighboring country as the biggest security challenge in the region.
EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell is in Japan to announce the new pact. It will include, among other things, space defence, cyber security and hybrid threats.
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East Asia's aging population
Chinese women are called up - asked to have children
Tens of thousands of women in China have been called by government employees urging them to get pregnant, writes the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post.
It happens after an authority announced in October that it was launching a survey aimed at women of childbearing age, to find out their views on marriage and childbearing.
The birth rate in China has declined sharply – a development that can be seen in large parts of the world. In 2016, China scrapped the rule that only allowed one child per family. In 2021, the limit was raised to three children.
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The storm Jakob
New warnings for landslides and floods after severe storms in Norway
Water levels are rising in several places in western Norway after storm Jakob caused great devastation in several villages and towns. Norwegian NRK reports that the historic hotel in Ullensvang has been flooded.
- In some places in the hotel, the water has risen to one meter above the ground, says Britt Marie Grieg, who runs the hotel.
In the municipality, which is located a couple of hours outside the city of Bergen, 50 people have been forced to leave their homes due to the prevailing weather conditions. The local authorities have stated that the worst of the downpour is over, but are still warning that there may be consequences.
- There is still a warning for floods and landslides, says meteorologist Julie Solsvik Vågane to the channel.
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The floods in Spain
Satellite images show Spain before and after the disaster
The floods in Spain have caused great devastation during the week. Satellite images of the Valencia region now show how cities have been covered in muddy water, streets have turned into rivers and important infrastructure has been completely destroyed, writes CNN.
When the downpours began on Tuesday, an entire year's worth of rain fell in just a few hours in the worst-hit areas.
At least 205 people have died and the military has been called in to assist in rescue efforts after Europe's worst weather disaster in five decades, Reuters reports.
The death toll rises – over 200 dead in the Spanish stormSatellite images show Spain before and after the disaster
The floods in Spain have caused great devastation during the week. Satellite images of the Valencia region now show how cities have been covered in muddy water, streets have turned into rivers and important infrastructure has been completely destroyed, writes CNN.
When the downpours began on Tuesday, an entire year's worth of rain fell in just a few hours in the worst-hit areas.
At least 205 people have died and the military has been called in to assist in rescue efforts after Europe's worst weather disaster in five decades, Reuters reports.
More than 200 people have now been confirmed dead in the heavy floods that hit Valencia in recent days, the local authorities said according to Spanish media. Earlier on Friday, the official figure was 155. Now 202 people have been confirmed dead.
The emergency services say they are continuing to identify victims.
The major search effort to find missing people is still ongoing, including with the help of soldiers.
Political situation in Botswana
Change of power in Botswana - after 58 years with the same party
Botswana's President Mokgweetsi Masisi has conceded defeat in the election after preliminary results showed his party losing its majority in parliament, Reuters reports.
The Botswana Democratic Party, BDP, is losing by a wide margin according to local media. This means that the party, which has ruled the country since 1966, must now become part of the opposition.
- Although I wanted to remain as your president, I respect the will of the people and congratulate the incoming president, says Masisi at a press conference.
The opposition coalition UDC, led by lawyer Duma Boko, has not yet commented on the election victory.
Botswana's President Mokgweetsi Masisi has conceded defeat in the election after preliminary results showed his party losing its majority in parliament, Reuters reports.
The Botswana Democratic Party, BDP, is losing by a wide margin according to local media. This means that the party, which has ruled the country since 1966, must now become part of the opposition.
- Although I wanted to remain as your president, I respect the will of the people and congratulate the incoming president, says Masisi at a press conference.
The opposition coalition UDC, led by lawyer Duma Boko, has not yet commented on the election victory.
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Joy among BDP critics: "Hope for a fresh start"
Economic decline and corruption within the ruling Botswana Democratic Party, BDP, are singled out as two explanations for the shift in power in the country, reports the New York Times. Critics have pointed to the government's mismanagement of the country's economy, which is largely made up of income from the large diamond production in Botswana.
- I hope that we will get a fresh start on many things, says the 43-year-old teacher Tumelo Eetsi to the newspaper.
That the BDP is now losing its majority in parliament follows a pattern in southern Africa, according to the New York Times. Several countries with parties that have been in power for a long time have seen power shifts in recent years.
Economy
The election in the USA Swedish interest rates
Storbank: A Trump victory could make the Riksbank rethink
Ten out of eleven assessors in Infront's forecast survey believe that the Riksbank will lower the interest rate by 50 points on Thursday to 2.75 percent. But the American presidential election, which is decided a few days before the decision, creates uncertainty.
The major Dutch bank ING is flagging on Friday that a victory for Donald Trump and the Republicans could put pressure on the krona, according to Direkt. This, in turn, may make the Riksbank more cautious and proceed with a smaller reduction of 25 points. ING also believes, however, that there will be a double reduction.
"Given that the recent EUR/SEK rise likely already contains a certain 'Trump risk', our basic scenario is that the pair can stay below 12:00 even in the event of a Trump victory, which would allow the Riksbank to carry out a reduction by 50 points", write the bank's economists.
Storbank: A Trump victory could make the Riksbank rethink
Ten out of eleven assessors in Infront's forecast survey believe that the Riksbank will lower the interest rate by 50 points on Thursday to 2.75 percent. But the American presidential election, which is decided a few days before the decision, creates uncertainty.
The major Dutch bank ING is flagging on Friday that a victory for Donald Trump and the Republicans could put pressure on the krona, according to Direkt. This, in turn, may make the Riksbank more cautious and proceed with a smaller reduction of 25 points. ING also believes, however, that there will be a double reduction.
"Given that the recent EUR/SEK rise likely already contains a certain 'Trump risk', our basic scenario is that the pair can stay below 12:00 even in the event of a Trump victory, which would allow the Riksbank to carry out a reduction by 50 points", write the bank's economists.
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The job figures in the United States
Experts: Chaos expected after hurricanes and Boeing strike
Unexpectedly few jobs were created in the US labor market in October but experts caution against drawing far-reaching conclusions from Friday's numbers. It has already been warned in advance of a messy report due to the big strike at Boeing and the hurricane season.
"Job data ends up a bit in the shadow of interest," writes SEB economist Robert Bergqvist on X.
Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Asset Management, reasons that after removing the noise, the report still shows that the labor market is slowing down.
“The consensus forecast of an increase in employment of 100,000 new jobs already took into account the impact of the hurricanes. So the big surprise on the downside suggests an underlying weakness, she writes and continues:
"It confirms that the Fed must continue its easing cycle".
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The election in the United States •The Republican campaign
Interest rate manager: Trump can punch a hole in Swedish wallets
A higher American interest rate means increased pressure on the Swedish krona and creates a foxhole that can make a hole in Swedes' wallets in the long run. That's what Storebrand's interest manager Gustaf Linell tells Privata Affärer.
The US ten-year interest rate has risen from 3.6 percent to just over 4.3 percent since mid-September. The reaction is interpreted as the market pricing in Trump, who is also the biggest inflation risk, says Linell.
- There is a big movement up in interest rates after a long period of falling interest rates.
It will be difficult for the Riksbank to bring down inflation if the dollar strengthens against the krona and import prices rise. The scope for interest rate cuts becomes smaller if the krona continues to fall in value, says Linell.
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The report flood
Apple in line with estimates – billion tax to the EU weighed on profit
Apple's revenue, earnings per share and iPhone sales topped estimates by small margins. However, the quarter's net result was weighed down by a tax bill of over SEK 100 billion to the EU, writes CNBC.
Sales in China, Apple's third-largest region by revenue, came in at $15 billion, versus expectations of $15.8 billion. It creates continuing headaches for the technology giant, writes Bloomberg.
The stock falls slightly in after-market trading on Wall Street.
The Russian invasion
The Russian invasion The outside world's response
ISW: North Korea's entry could destabilize Asia
The fact that North Korea sent soldiers to Ukraine could have a long-term impact on stability in Asia, writes the ISW think tank in a status report.
North Korea's increasingly close cooperation with Russia could be a way for the country to reduce its dependence on China, according to the report.
"Reduced Chinese influence over North Korea is likely to make the Korean Peninsula more unstable and dangerous for the Asia-Pacific region, as China uses its influence to curb North Korean aggression."
The defense pact with Russia can also help North Korea develop its nuclear weapons program, and thus make the threats against South Korea more credible, writes ISW.
Sending troops to Ukraine could also be a way to secure Russian support in the event of a possible clash with the neighbor to the south, they add.
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North Korea: Supports Russia until they win the war
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son-Hui have met in Moscow to discuss military cooperation between the countries, several media write.
- Very close ties have been established between the militaries and the special services of the two countries, says Lavrov.
Choe Son-Hui accused the US and South Korea of planning a nuclear attack on North Korea, writes Reuters. This without providing any evidence to support his claim.
She also warned that the situation on the Korean Peninsula could become "explosive" at any moment. North Korea, which recently sent thousands of soldiers to the war in Ukraine, will continue to support Russia until they win the war, according to Son-Hui.
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The Russian invasion The battles
Russia is gaining ground faster and faster in eastern Ukraine
Last week, Russia took 200 square kilometers of land in eastern Ukraine – more than any other week in 2024, Bloomberg reports.
In total, since August 6, Russia has taken 1 146 square kilometers, more than it took in total during the first seven months of the year.
Disappointment is growing in Kyiv, say two sources close to President Zelenskyi. The outcome of the US election could mean that the country is forced to agree to an unfavorable peace, or to continue the war against Russia without the vital US support.
In September, a survey by the Razumkov Center in Kyiv showed that two out of three Ukrainians want to start peace talks with Russia – a 14 percent increase compared to the corresponding period last year.
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