Expert: Could be part of Russia's hybrid war

Russia
Expert: "Ruby can be part of Russia's hybrid war against the West"

Joachim Kerpner

Updated 15.14 | Published 12.13

The cargo ship Ruby. Photo: Vesselfinder

The damaged cargo ship MV Ruby, loaded with potentially lethal ammonium nitrate, may be part of Russia's hybrid war against the West.

At least according to Danish security expert Jacob Kaarsbo:

- You want to scare and see how the Nordic countries react, he says to DR.

Quick version

• The cargo ship MV Ruby, loaded with 20,000 tons of Russian ammonium nitrate, may be part of Russia's hybrid war to test and intimidate the reactions of the Nordic countries, according to security expert Jacob Kaarsbo.
• The ship, owned by Syrians through a Lebanese holding company, ran aground in Norwegian waters and subsequently sought refuge. Due to the dangerous cargo, Ruby was forced onward and is now being towed towards Klaipeda, Lithuania.
• Swedish authorities do not consider Ruby a serious threat, despite the ammonium nitrate cargo, and have no indications that the cargo or the ship's fuel tanks are damaged or threatened.

Maltese-flagged Ruby is owned by Syrians through a holding company in Lebanon, but was loaded with 20,000 tonnes of ammonium nitrate in Russia's Kandalaksha on the Kola Peninsula in August.

On 22 August the ship ran aground and shortly afterwards sought shelter in the Norwegian Vannöya. A few days later, in Tromsø, Norwegian authorities discovered that the ship's rudder, propeller and hull had been damaged in the grounding.

After being banished from Tromsø because of the potentially dangerous cargo — when 2,700 tons of ammonium nitrate exploded in Beirut's harbor in 2020, 235 people died and 300,000 were left homeless — Ruby is now being towed toward Lithuania's Klaipeda, according to Marine Traffic, and transiting Denmark's Great Belt this weekend.

​Jacob Kaarsbo Photo: Lars E/Think Tank Europe

Jacob Kaarsbo, senior analyst at Danish Think Tank Europe, tells Danish DR  that the ship's route is "suspicious":

- The most likely thing is that this is part of a hybrid war, where you somehow want to scare and see how the Nordic countries react when the ship comes close to our coasts and critical installations.

- I don't think the Russians will suddenly let this floating bomb explode at the Great Belt Bridge, that would have been an act of war. The reason is probably more that you want to test how the authorities react, says Kaarsbo to DR.

He believes that Sweden, Norway and Denmark should cooperate via NATO in the handling of the Ruby, which does not seem to have happened so far, at least not while the ship was sailing along Norway.

- The lesson from this incident is that it is an advantage if NATO cooperates around suspicious activity of this type, says Jacob Kaarsbo to Aftonbladet.

Do you think NATO is involved now?

- I hope so. I saw that a Turkish navy ship was in the area when Ruby was walking in the Skagerrak. It may indicate that this is coordinated via NATO now.

At lunchtime on Saturday, the boat was just outside Skagerak. Photo: Google Earth

Swedish authorities are not worried about Ruby, which is currently in the Skagerrak and, according to Marine Traffic, is expected to reach Lithuania's Klaipeda on Monday evening after passing the southern coast of Sweden.

- We have no information that the cargo would be damaged or threatened, nor that the fuel tanks would be, Mattias Lindholm, press spokesperson at the Coast Guard, previously told Aftonbladet.

- Thus, our assessment is that the cargo does not pose any greater threat than it usually does. Ammonium nitrate is not inherently dangerous or explosive. It will be if it is exposed to impact, if it reacts with diesel or strong heat, not if it is transported correctly.

The cargo ship Ruby. Photo: Vesselfinder