Middle East crisis Economic effects

“Worst case scenario” in Asia – 15 countries seek emergency loans

15 countries in Asia have applied for emergency loans totaling $4 billion from the Asian Development Bank, ADB. This is reported by the Financial Times.

The reason is the energy crisis that has hit the countries as a result of the Iran war and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

ADB head Masato Kanda says that there is a serious shortage of both oil and gas in the countries in question.

– The worst case scenario has now become a reality. Unfortunately, Asia and the Pacific region are the ones that are affected the most.

Many countries in Asia are heavily dependent on oil and gas imports from the Middle East, which has made the region particularly vulnerable to disruptions in the energy market.

“Good” that oil prices are falling – but there is a long way to go

The fact that oil prices are falling is good news for the world economy, writes Nordnet in a market commentary that DI has read. The reason is that lower oil prices ease inflationary pressures.

Oil prices fell around 5 percent on Friday after Donald Trump said the Iran war was over.

But it will be a long time before oil costs what it did before the US and Israel launched the attacks and Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz.

Commodity analyst Christian Kopfer tells EFN that it will take time to build up new stocks and energy infrastructure.

– Goldman Sachs was out and said that they see an oil price of $80 by 2027, which is quite far above pre-war levels.

Analysts warn: Don't take Trump's word for it

Oil prices are falling significantly after Donald Trump claimed that the Iran war is over. On Friday morning, fuel oil is down just over 6 percent to a price of $88 per barrel.

That’s still significantly higher than the $70 or so that oil was trading at before the Iran war broke out.

ING commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that this is not the first time Trump has claimed the war is over, but add that there are more “positive signals” this time.

They advise investors to be cautious and not assume that an extended ceasefire is already in place:

“And even if it does happen, it could prove fragile.”