Risk of Russian attack in the “near future” – and the money is not enough
Russia could attack in the near future, the US is withdrawing – and the defense spending Sweden is planning is not enough to achieve NATO goals.
The eight parliamentary parties’ new analysis of the world offers three very bittersweet sweets.
– It is enough that the Kremlin sees a political situation that is favorable, says Mikael Oscarsson (KD).
The Defense Committee today presented “Severe Situation”, its new analysis of the world.
All parliamentary parties are on the committee, and all eight were broadly in agreement.
A Russian attack to test NATO's cohesion "could happen in the relatively near future," the committee writes.
In that case, it does not require Russia to first end the war in Ukraine, or reach a certain level of military buildup - the attack can happen even if "the military balance of power does not meet traditional requirements for an attack."
ÖB Michael Claesson has long spoken in similar terms, but the fact that the parliamentary parties jointly make the same analysis is new.
- Russia does not need military superiority. It is enough for the Kremlin to see a political situation that is favorable. This political situation could, in the worst case, be imminent, says Mikael Oscarsson (KD).
“Harsher rhetoric” from Trump
That is not the only thing that has gotten worse since the commission's last report in 2023.
Not least, Donald Trump has entered the arena.
“American foreign and security policy has changed significantly under the current administration,” the commission writes.
“The actions are characterized to a greater extent by unpredictability, rapid changes, transactionalism, harsher rhetoric and an increased tendency to use military force on its own, which on some occasions has lacked support in international law.”
At the same time, the commission believes that “the United States is ... crucial for Swedish and European security and prosperity.”
– I would have liked to have seen that we had been clearer about the Americans, says Hanna Gunnarsson (V).
– The important thing is that we continue with the construction of the entire European total defense. So that we can defend our countries and Europe together.
More money is needed
A third leaven is pushing politicians ahead.
Sweden is already making huge investments in defense, but the committee makes it clear that even the current plan is not enough to fully meet the military capability goals that NATO has set for Sweden.
In fact, the resource requirement "clearly exceeds ... the target level of 3.5 percent of GDP", according to the Armed Forces.
Without more money, our military will simply not be able to meet NATO's expectations.
However, most politicians in the committee are cautious about promising that Sweden will actually achieve the capability goals.
- We will go through what we will do in a concrete sense in the next phase of the defense committee's work, and then we will have to look at how the economy looks. The mandate I have is for 3.5 percent, says Peter Hultqvist (S).
"We must start talking"
Hanna Gunnarsson highlights that the needs are great in many areas, such as healthcare and infrastructure.
- We also need to think about how we are going to finance it. Now we are borrowing, and we have agreed to that, but the long-term solution is joint financing via taxes. We must start talking about that for real, and the next government must dare to take it on, says Hanna Gunnarsson.
Gulan Avci (L) says that Sweden will achieve the capability goals, even if it costs more than 3.5 percent.
- Of course, we have committed to accepting the capability goals that NATO has assigned to us, she says.
– You have to ask yourself, is there a price tag for defending freedom in Sweden?
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