Iran's secret war plan was formed during the ceasefire
Generals held virtual conferences
During the ceasefire this spring, Iran drew up a secret war plan:
To expand the conflict in the region through proxy groups – which is exactly what has happened.
– They smell blood in the water and are pressuring various parties to their advantage, says Middle East expert Afshon Ostovar to the New York Times.
This spring, the US and Iran entered into a temporary ceasefire.
President Donald Trump described it as "a total and complete victory".
Now, an investigation by the New York Times shows that Iran used the time to secretly plan the next step in the war.
Two high-ranking Iranian officials tell the newspaper that Iranian generals held virtual conferences with commanders from Hezbollah, the Houthis and Iraqi Shia militia groups.
The goal was to prepare these allied proxy groups – a network Iran calls the “Axis of Resistance” – to escalate the war to more areas in the Middle East if the US began to intensify its attacks.
In recent weeks, that is exactly what has happened.
As expensive as possible
The Islamist Houthi movement in Yemen has attacked Saudi oil facilities and ships in the Red Sea with drones. The group has also established naval blockades of Saudi ships, which it has maintained with missile and drone attacks.
A US gas tanker was set on fire by drones while in port in Egypt. Iran has denied accusations that it was responsible.
Missile attacks have also been carried out on Jordan and Bahrain.
The attacks on US allies in the region have put pressure on global markets and the purpose, according to Iranian officials, is clear:
To make the war as costly as possible for Donald Trump.
Not acting like puppets
According to analysts, the three proxy groups are not necessarily acting as pure puppets of Tehran.
They may all have different reasons, but they all have one thing in common: they see the United States and Israel as their enemies. By spreading the attacks, they hope to discourage the United States and its Arab allies from continuing to conduct operations in the region.
That said, Iran’s strategy is said to be to avoid direct confrontations with American or Israeli forces. Such confrontations could lead to costly American retaliatory attacks on Iran.
Saudi Arabia, for example, has blamed Iraqi militias for the attacks on the kingdom, rather than blaming Iran.
“Believing that its neighbors are vulnerable”
A large part of Iran’s strategy, according to experts the New York Times spoke to, has also been to limit oil exports from the region.
As a result, gasoline prices in the United States are rising ahead of the midterm elections, while revenues from Arab allies to Washington are dwindling.
Before the war, about 20 percent of the world’s oil supply passed through the Strait of Hormuz. With Iran’s neighbors suffering economically, the regime hopes to take advantage of the situation, with the ambition of controlling all traffic through the strait.
“Iran believes its neighbors are vulnerable. Basically, they are just trying to twist the Saudis’ arm and get some concessions,” Afshon Ostovar, a Middle East expert, told the New York Times.
The fighting has been paused – again
Last weekend, the United States and Israel had planned large-scale attacks on Iran. But Donald Trump called off the attacks at the last minute and said the countries would begin talks on Monday for a new agreement.
However, Esmaeil Baghaei, the spokesman for Iran’s Foreign Ministry, said on Monday that no talks were being held with the United States at the moment.
There is currently no stable ceasefire, but the fighting has, for the time being, paused – again.
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