Hopeful protests that usually end in setbacks

Wolfgang Hansson 

Published: Yesterday 21.45 

 

This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's. 

 

COLUMNISTS 

 

Every time popular protests break out in Iran, a hope grows that the clerical dictatorship will fall. 

 

So even now when a young woman is killed by the morality police because she did not wear a veil. 

 

Unfortunately, it usually ends with the protests being brutally put down and the repression continuing. 

 

From the podium of the UN General Assembly, US President Joe Biden paid tribute to "the brave citizens and brave women of Iran who are demonstrating to secure their basic rights." 

 

But when Iranian President Erahim Raisi addressed the same assembly at UN headquarters in New York, he did not mention the protests a word. 

 

It is as if he and others in the power stratum live in a world of their own. Nevertheless, the Islamic regime has been rocked in the past week by the most extensive protests in years.

 

 

Mahsa Amini, 22, died after an intervention by the religious police in Tehran. Photo: Social Networks / Zuma Press 

 

The trigger was when 22-year-old Mahsa Amini was killed after an intervention by the religious police. 

 

She was visiting the capital, Tehran, and emerged from the subway without a veil covering her hair. A serious crime under the strict religious laws that have prevailed in the country since the 1979 revolution. 

 

Police claim Amini suffered a heart attack and died. But witnesses who were arrested with her say that the officers repeatedly pounded her head against the inside of the police bus, after which she became unconscious. 

 

 

Many Iranians have had enough of all the religious rules that the regime tries to enforce and that govern the lives of ordinary people. Photo: Copyright 2022 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. 

 

Dissatisfaction bubbles under the surface 

 

After images of the lifeless woman spread on social media, popular protests erupted, which then spread to cities across the country. Women take off their veils, some even burn them. 

 

Initially, the protests were directed against the police's treatment of the young woman, but very quickly it was the clerical dictatorship and the religious rule that became the target. Now slogans like "We don't want the Islamic Republic" and "Death to the religious leader" are heard. 

 

That is often the case in Iran. 

 

A single incident triggers protests, but under the surface, dissatisfaction with the rulers has been bubbling for a very long time. The country is like a pressure cooker that periodically explodes. 

 

Many Iranians have had enough of all the religious rules that the regime tries to enforce and that govern the lives of ordinary people. 

 

The religious police constantly harass, above all, women who do not cover themselves sufficiently. People are tired of the oppression and the wretched economy that is the result of mismanagement and that Iran is a pariah regime that has been subjected to a series of sanctions from the United States and the West over the years, including for its attempts to secretly acquire nuclear weapons. 

 

 

Every time popular protests start against the regime, hope is awakened both among those living in Iran, among Iranian exiles and international opinion. Photo: Copyright 2022 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. 

 

Shoots sharply at the population

The regime's response is always the same. First, the internet and access to social media are restricted or turned off. Riot police are then ordered out into the streets, who fire sharply at the demonstrators. 

 

This time around ten people have already been killed in the protests. The risk is high that that number will rise as the protests seem to be increasing in scope. 

 

Every time popular protests start against the regime, hope is raised both among those living in Iran, among Iranians in exile and international opinion that this time the uprising will be so extensive that the dictatorship can be overthrown. 

 

Unfortunately, it often ends in disappointment. The Iranian regime is totally ruthless. They are prepared to resort to any means to stop the protests. 

 

That includes shooting sharply at one's own population and throwing rioters in jail without trial. 

 

Initially, this time the regime tried to quell the protests by promising an investigation into what happened to Masha Amini. 

 

May bury their dead 

 

But when that failed to quell the protests, tactics seem to have fallen back to the old usual. Total repression. It is still too early to say how it will end. 

 

I hear many expressing hope that the rebellion this time will mean the end of religious rule. 

 

But the risk is obvious that it ends as it usually does. The dictatorial rulers remain. 

 

A number of families are allowed to bury sons and daughters killed in the protests. The repression continues unabated. Until the discontent explodes again. 

 

At some point the Iranian dictatorship will fall but it is far from certain that what we are seeing now is the end.