Economy

The election in the USA Swedish interest rates
Storbank: A Trump victory could make the Riksbank rethink

Ten out of eleven assessors in Infront's forecast survey believe that the Riksbank will lower the interest rate by 50 points on Thursday to 2.75 percent. But the American presidential election, which is decided a few days before the decision, creates uncertainty.

The major Dutch bank ING is flagging on Friday that a victory for Donald Trump and the Republicans could put pressure on the krona, according to Direkt. This, in turn, may make the Riksbank more cautious and proceed with a smaller reduction of 25 points. ING also believes, however, that there will be a double reduction.

"Given that the recent EUR/SEK rise likely already contains a certain 'Trump risk', our basic scenario is that the pair can stay below 12:00 even in the event of a Trump victory, which would allow the Riksbank to carry out a reduction by 50 points", write the bank's economists.

 

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The job figures in the United States
Experts: Chaos expected after hurricanes and Boeing strike

Unexpectedly few jobs were created in the US labor market in October but experts caution against drawing far-reaching conclusions from Friday's numbers. It has already been warned in advance of a messy report due to the big strike at Boeing and the hurricane season.

"Job data ends up a bit in the shadow of interest," writes SEB economist Robert Bergqvist on X.

Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Asset Management, reasons that after removing the noise, the report still shows that the labor market is slowing down.

“The consensus forecast of an increase in employment of 100,000 new jobs already took into account the impact of the hurricanes. So the big surprise on the downside suggests an underlying weakness, she writes and continues:

"It confirms that the Fed must continue its easing cycle".

 

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The election in the United States •The Republican campaign
Interest rate manager: Trump can punch a hole in Swedish wallets

A higher American interest rate means increased pressure on the Swedish krona and creates a foxhole that can make a hole in Swedes' wallets in the long run. That's what Storebrand's interest manager Gustaf Linell tells Privata Affärer.

The US ten-year interest rate has risen from 3.6 percent to just over 4.3 percent since mid-September. The reaction is interpreted as the market pricing in Trump, who is also the biggest inflation risk, says Linell.

- There is a big movement up in interest rates after a long period of falling interest rates.

It will be difficult for the Riksbank to bring down inflation if the dollar strengthens against the krona and import prices rise. The scope for interest rate cuts becomes smaller if the krona continues to fall in value, says Linell.

 

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The report flood
Apple in line with estimates – billion tax to the EU weighed on profit

Apple's revenue, earnings per share and iPhone sales topped estimates by small margins. However, the quarter's net result was weighed down by a tax bill of over SEK 100 billion to the EU, writes CNBC.

Sales in China, Apple's third-largest region by revenue, came in at $15 billion, versus expectations of $15.8 billion. It creates continuing headaches for the technology giant, writes Bloomberg.

The stock falls slightly in after-market trading on Wall Street.