Will be a bloody fight – and could be the beginning of the end

Johan Mathias Sommarström

This is a commentary text. This is a commentary text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.

Updated 15.22 | Published 12.12

 

A column of smoke rises into the sky after one of the rocket attacks in Tehran this morning. Photo: /AP/TT

The smoke from the bombs covers the sky in Tehran.

A new war has begun.

In a region where peace never has a chance.

A massive military operation. Rockets against several cities. Ayatolla Ali Khamenei has been taken out of Teheran,  to be protected at all costs. High-ranking military personnel are attacked, key individuals are knocked out. It's war – again.

In the largest military escalation since 2003, the US, together with Israel, wants to destroy Iran's missile program and fleet. They want to make sure that Iran never succeeds in developing nuclear weapons. But they also want to overthrow the regime.

US President Donald Trump urging the Iranians to seize power, to seize the opportunity to overthrow their tormentors. But it will not be easy.

Once again, news from Iran will be difficult to verify, once again the internet and communications have been shut down.

During the large demonstrations against the regime at the beginning of the year, thousands of protesters were killed by the regime's militias and police. The US even threatened to bomb them.

Now the mullahs could face a two-front war, one against Israel/the US and one against critics at home. But even if the regime is pressured, they are still the ones with the weapons in Iran, they are the ones who have the monopoly on violence. They will do everything to fight back, both against Israel and the US and against democracy seekers at home.

Overthrowing the regime will not be done in a flash, despite foreign bombs. But it is also a situation that has not existed before, a door that has been opened ajar.

It is difficult to know how strong the Iranian military really is. During the Twelve Day War last summer, Israel was able to knock out Iranian air defenses without much difficulty and then own the airspace over the country. But despite the setbacks, the regime did not let itself be moved.

Bombing a regime is not easy, the successful examples are few while the deterrent ones are all the more numerous. A lot can go wrong and, as always, civilians will have to pay a high price.

The war against Iran could also spread to the region.

With explosions now heard all over the Middle East, the coming days or even hours will be impossible to predict. So much can go wrong.

It is a region where peace is never given a chance. Where war and bombs have become the solution and the answer.

This time, Iran stands alone.

Its allies are weakened, the Assad regime in Syria is no more, Iraqi Shia militias lack muscle and Hizbollah is only a shadow of what it once was.

So be sure that the attacks are shaking the Iranian regime. Maybe now the cracks in the hardline rule are starting to grow. Maybe this is the beginning of the end. But just maybe.

Because while the Iranians are trying to protect themselves from the explosions of missiles, air raid sirens are also sounding in Israel and at American bases in the Gulf.

Iran is being pressured, they have been pushed up against the wall with their throats exposed, but they will not give up without a fight. And it will be bloody.