Japanese horror forecast: Could kill hundreds of thousands of people
Felix Wilow
Updated 23.18 | Published 23.17
Hundreds of thousands dead, millions evacuated and economic damage of 20 billion Swedish kronor.
The feared Japanese trench could have devastating consequences for the entire country, according to a new report from the Japanese government.
Several experts warn of a significant risk of major earthquakes in the near future.
Two tectonic plates in the 900-kilometer-long Nankai Trough are causing fear in Japan. And the government's new calculation is not light reading.
The worst-case scenario for the area would be an earthquake measuring 9 on the Richter scale – which would mean a catastrophe for large parts of Japan.
The greatest damage
According to the government’s new report, such a quake could cause widespread building collapses, tsunamis and fires. The death toll is expected to reach 298,000 and the economic damage would be equivalent to half the country’s GDP.
The greatest devastation is expected to be caused by subsequent tsunami waves, which could force more than twelve million people to evacuate.
The Japanese would be hit hardest if it happened in winter, when many people crowd public transport and light fires at home.
The report compares it to the enormous earthquake and tsunami that hit the country in 2011, killing around 20,000 people.
80 percent probability
The fear of major earthquakes has always haunted the country, which is among the areas on earth with the greatest seismic activity. A government-appointed panel of experts has estimated the risk of a so-called Nankai earthquake measuring between eight and nine magnitudes at “about 80 percent” within the next 30 years, the Financial Times reports.
A new warning system was installed in 2017 to improve Japan’s preparedness for major earthquakes. The alert was first raised in August last year – but ended with a magnitude 7.1 earthquake without any damage.
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