Our fears have come true – the US cannot be trust

Donald Trump

The double-arms race screams what no one dared to whisper

Niclas Vent
This is a commentary text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.

Updated 18.19 | Published 18.02

Donald Trump, US President. Photo: Mark Schiefelbein/AP

The government's double-arms race screams what no one dared to whisper: the US cannot be trusted.

All previous plans have been castles in the air.

It is now becoming very dangerous, very quickly.

"We are navigating with calm" says Ebba Busch, when the government throws the only three-month-old defense plan – which politicians have spent two years churning out – into the trash.

This is not how it usually goes.

The reason is simple

2025 is the year when everything our politicians hoped for has come crashing down.

They have called for a cold shoulder.

Above all, they have said that the promise made by the NATO countries to defend each other,

still applies.

The Prime Minister has said it. The Minister of Defence. The Leader of the opposition. The Commander-in-Chief.

I find it difficult to criticize them for that. They have to say it. Security policy is in a sense magic and metaphysics, or as Wilhelm Agrell says, a rain dance. The emperor may in practice have clothes on, as long as no unshaven child publicly claims the opposite.

But the announcement of increased defense spending is an acknowledgment of what all Swedes have understood about Article 5 on their own in recent months:

It may not apply at all.

In December, the plan was for defense spending to be 2.6 percent of GDP by 2030.

Now, suddenly, it will be up to 3.5 percent instead – or at least 70 billion kronor extra a year.

Only one thing has happened since December:

Donald Trump.

His progress has exposed the plan from December for what it was. A plan for fair weather. A plan by and for people who still hoped for the best.

Donald Trump was critical of NATO during his last term as well, but then the US de facto increased its presence in Europe.  

So said many decision-makers who hoped for the best before January 2025.

We must look beyond the rhetoric, and see what the US is actually doing.

So they said.

Now  Vice President JD Vance has gone to Munich and spewed his hatred for our European societies. Trump has threatened to use force against Denmark. Zelenskyj has been humiliated in front of rolling cameras in the White House. Trump's envoy has gone to the Kremlin and left as Putin's puppet.

The war in Ukraine is drawing to a close, and the clock is ticking. After a ceasefire, Russia could be ready for a major war in the Baltic region in two years, according to Danish intelligence.

All the worst fears have come true, and we have clearly not taken them into account.

It could get worse.

The 300 billion kronor that the government wants to borrow for defense is a lot of money. It will require sacrifices from all Swedes for decades. It could also lead to new taxes, cuts in welfare, we will see about that.

Today, it is enough to state:

Sweden has not implemented a major increase in defense spending since the second half of 1939.

The implications are dark, but it is no use pretending that they do not exist.

To quote Carl XVI Gustaf, who I spoke to in January:

Now it's serious.

FACTS

This has happened

• On Wednesday, the government and the Sweden Democrats presented a plan to rapidly equip the defense, by borrowing 300 billion kronor until 2034. In 2030, defense spending will be 3.5 percent of GDP, compared to today's 2.4 percent.
• The reason is the threat from Russia, while the United States is feared to reduce its involvement in Europe.
• At the NATO summit in June, a decision is expected to be made on higher demands on the member states' defense budgets. Today, the minimum requirement is two percent of GDP. The government expects the new target to be between three and four percent of GDP and believes that it will land at 3.5 percent.