"The first thought is that this will not go well"

The expert compares it to the Haiti disaster

Marcus Ulvsand

Updated 10.10 | Published 09.04

Two major earthquakes in short succession – in a densely populated area.

Now thousands are feared to have died in Venezuela.

- The first thought is that this will not go well, says Björn Lund, seismologist at Uppsala University.

Thousands are feared to have died in the twin earthquakes that hit Caracas, Venezuela during the night of Thursday. The first quake had a magnitude of 7.2 and just 39 seconds later the second came at 7.5.

According to the US Geological Survey, between 10,000 and 100,000 may have died in the earthquakes.

- This is a very large earthquake, there will be very strong shaking in a densely populated area where the building standard is not as good as one would like, says Björn Lund, seismologist at Uppsala University.

          

          Graphics: Paul Wallander

Two earthquakes unusual

That it is about two large earthquakes in a short time is unusual, according to Björn Lund, even though it has happened before. And the fact that there are double earthquakes in a very short time may have contributed to worsening the situation, as buildings that were damaged in the first earthquake are hit harder by the second.

– Things that may not have been completely damaged in the first, collapse in the shaking that comes from the second earthquake.

          

          Björn Lund, seismologist. Photo: Pontus Lundahl/TT

He believes that the earthquake in Caracas is reminiscent of previous earthquakes, and mentions the earthquake in Myanmar last year and Turkey in 2023.

– The worst comparison is Haiti in 2010, where it is estimated that between 120,000 and 300,000 people died. Now we really have to hope that it will not be as bad today. 

           

Devastation in Port-au-Prince after the earthquake in Haiti in 2010. Photo: Gerald Herbert / AP

Risk of aftershocks

While the rescue work is now underway, several aftershocks are expected. This means that the rescue work is associated with great risks. According to Björn Lund, an aftershock just above magnitude 6 must be expected.

- If rescue workers are in damaged houses that collapse in the aftershock, it is a great danger for the rescue forces.

At the same time, it is very urgent to rescue them, as they are trapped in collapsed buildings.

- They usually say that you have a couple of days, but no more than three, so it is very urgent.

          

          Double earthquakes hit Venezuela on Thursday night Swedish time. Photo: Ariana Cubillos /AP