Putin wants to show that he still has friends

 

Wolfgang Hansson 

 

Published: Yesterday 22.42 

 

This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's. 

 

COLUMNISTS 

 

The war has meant an unprecedented international isolation of Russia. 

 

A summit this week with, among others, China's leader Xi Jinping gives President Putin the chance to show that he at least has some friends left. 

 

But it is doubtful how much help Putin can count on from China. 

 

The meeting between Putin and Xi Jinping in Samarkand, Uzbekistan will be the first since Russia invaded Ukraine. The last time the two world leaders saw each other was when the Winter Olympics in Beijing opened and Putin still denied any plans to invade Ukraine. 

 

At that time, he received strong support from China's leaders who declared that there were no limits to the cooperation between the two countries. 

 

Now they meet just days after the Russian army was forced into a humiliating retreat from areas it occupied in the Kharkiv region. There is no doubt which of them is in a position of strength. 

 

 

Putin and Xi Jinping last met in conjunction with the Beijing Olympic Games in February. Photo: Alexei Druzhinin / AP 

 

China would like to help Putin, but not at the cost of being exposed to economic sanctions from the United States or having their own economy driven to the bottom. An economy that depends on the functioning of world trade. Something that the war in Ukraine has made more difficult. 

 

When the West has boycotted Russian oil, China has instead been able to buy more at a discounted price. Russia has also greatly increased its imports of Chinese cars because its own car industry has been hit hard by the Western boycott against the export of technology. 

 

But according to the White House, China has not helped Russia in any decisive way, although it has not stood up to Western sanctions either. 

 

Gives Putin billions in revenue 

 

Which does not prevent the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, SCO, which some call the NATO of the East, from showing a decisive problem with the sanctions. 

 

Important countries such as India and China stand by the sanctions. 

 

The same applies to a large number of the world's countries outside the Western bloc. 

 

Even India, which is also at the meeting, has greatly increased its imports of Russian oil. 

 

And as long as other countries buy the oil and to some extent gas that Russia can no longer or does not want to export to Europe and the USA, the billions of revenues continue to flow into the Russian treasury and enable Putin to finance the war in Ukraine. 

 

For Putin, the meeting is an opportunity to show both the Russians and the outside world that Russia is not as isolated as the West claims. Not least important psychologically. In Samarkand, he will meet a number of other leaders alongside Xi Jinping. It is something Russia will exploit in its propaganda. 

 

 

Xi Jinping arrived in Kazakhstan on Wednesday. Later this week, he will participate, together with Vladimir Putin, at the SCO summit in Uzbekistan. Photo: AP 

The meeting is indeed Xi Jinping's first trip abroad since the pandemic broke out in 2020. But he is coming there in a position of strength. It is Putin who will be standing there, cap in hand, asking China for help. Which will not be easy for a leader whose entire career is based on him constantly showing uncompromising strength. 

 

Weakened position 

 

Xi Jinping will likely express support for Russia and assure the world of their respective countries' continued strong alliance. Xi Jinping needs Putin to drive their joint struggle for a new world order that is not dominated by the values ​​of the liberal world. 

 

But it is doubtful that Putin will get any more concrete promises of support. China wants to balance on the right side of the line that involves President Biden acting to blacklist more Chinese companies from trade with the West. Five suffered that fate during the summer for helping Russia after the invasion. 

 

 

A Ukrainian soldier walks past a shot-up Russian tank in the Kharkiv region, Sunday, September 11. Photo: AP 

 

Developments in the war should worry Xi Jinping. 

 

The strong cooperation between China and Russia relies heavily on the personal relationship between the two leaders. With the astonishing setbacks of the Russian war machine in Ukraine, Putin's position at home risks weakening. 

 

China's trump card 

 

In recent days, criticism has been voiced both from Russian right-wing nationalists who support the war and from lower-level elected officials who want to impeach Putin. 

 

Probably Xi Jinping is wary of putting all his eggs in Putin's basket. At the moment, it is Xi Jinping who holds most of the trump cards in the relationship. 

 

If Russia should lose the war in Ukraine, China will be able to greatly advance its position of power in Central Asia. Russia then risks becoming, in practice, a vassal state to China. 

 

If Russia emerges victorious from the war, China will continue to have a strong partner in its attempts to challenge the US and the rest of the West on how the world should be governed.