New elections in Germany

Two parties balance on the threshold – Friedrich Merz looks set to become the new chancellor

Two parties balance on the threshold in the German new elections, which sets the stage for a big drama. This is shown by two polling station surveys from the TV channels ARD and ZDF.

The liberal FDP and the left-conservative BSW both receive 5.0 percent in the ZDF survey – exactly on the threshold. But according to the ARD survey, both parties will be eliminated. How the parties fare will have a major impact on the upcoming government negotiations.

As expected, the Christian Democratic CDU will be the largest party with around 29 percent. Everything therefore indicates that CDU leader Friedrich Merz will become Germany's next chancellor.

The second largest will be the far-right AfD party with around 20 percent, which is double compared to the last election. The Social Democrats are facing a fiasco election and will receive just over 16 percent, according to the surveys.

In simple terms, the best outcome for the CDU is if one or more parties leave the Bundestag. It will then be easier to negotiate a government and a two-party coalition may then suffice, probably with the SPD or the Greens. However, the party has ruled out government cooperation with the AfD.

Polling station surveys usually match the election results.

The forecasts of the two polling stations

ZDF polling station survey: 

 

SPD: 16.5% 

 

CDU: 28.5% 

 

The Greens: 12.0% 

 

FDP: 5.0% AFD: 20.0% 

 

The Left: 9.0% 

 

BSW: 5.0% 

 

Others: 4.0% 

ARD polling station survey:

SPD: 16.0%

CDU: 29.0%

The Greens: 13.5%

FDP: 4.9%

AFD: 19.5%

The Left: 8.5%

BSW: 4.7%

Others: 3.9%