Will be forced to choose between himself and the hostage

Hamas
The death of the Hamas leader forces Netanyahu to choose between himself and the hostages

Wolfgang Hansson

This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.

Published 19.29

Quick version

• The death of the Hamas leader could give Israel an opening for a cease-fire, but it is doubtful whether Prime Minister Netanyahu is willing to end the war, despite pressure both at home and abroad to free that hostage.
• Netanyahu is accused of prioritizing his own political survival over Israeli interests, and of sabotaging ceasefire attempts even when conditions are better after Sinwar's death.
• If the war against Hamas in Gaza ends, Netanyahu could risk serious political consequences, including reopened corruption trials that could threaten his future as leader.
  

The death of the Hamas leader opens a door out of the war for Israel.

The question is whether Prime Minister Netanyahu chooses to take it to get the hostages free.

Or if he continues to put his own political survival first.
 
The Israeli military has long argued that Israel should end the war in Gaza. In a military sense, Hamas is virtually defeated. Completely eliminating a group engaged in guerrilla warfare is not possible.

However, Netanyahu has stubbornly refused to agree to a truce with, among other reasons, the justification that as long as Hamas leader Yayha Sinwar is alive, it is not possible to declare total victory.

With the leader now dead, it opens up new opportunities to end the war.

Sinwar was a very militant leader and it is believed that he was the one who personally refused to allow Hamas to agree to a ceasefire.

We do not know who will be his successor, but the possibility exists that Hamas without Sinwar is prepared to soften some of its demands in order to agree to a ceasefire. If nothing else to try to rebuild the severely damaged terrorist group. Sinwar is far from the only leader Israel has killed. Many of the lower level commanders have signed off.

Along with Sinwar, Netanyahu has been the main obstacle to achieving a ceasefire. Every time the mediators have been close to a settlement, Netanyahu has done something that sabotaged a cease fire.

The elimination of Sinwar must be seen as a fine scalp for Israel and Netanyahu personally. He could well use it to declare victory and allow mediators the US, Qatar and Egypt to launch new efforts to reach a ceasefire.

Benjamin Netanyahu. Photo: Abir Sultan / AP

Important goal

Freeing the remaining hostages of around a hundred people has also been an important goal of the war. But a goal many Israelis accuse Netanyahu of neglecting.

Now it will be more difficult for "Bibi" not to seize the opportunity to free the hostage.

Pressure to end the war will increase both from relatives and allies such as the United States. For Joe Biden and the Democrats, a truce before the presidential election could tip the scales for a Kamala Harris victory.

She was also quick to use Sinwar's death to call for a ceasefire.

President Biden is sending his Secretary of State Anthony Blinken to the region for what time in the order. The question is whether his chances of success are that much greater this time. After the news of Sinwar's death, Netanyahu said the war will continue.

Now the prime minister is still forced to confess color. Whose interests does he put first; their own personal power or those imprisoned for over a year in Hamas violence?

Netanyahu knows that the day the war ends, the risk is imminent that his own political career will meet the same fate.

Then responsibility will be demanded for the fact that Hamas managed to surprise Israel with its terrorist attack on October 7 last year. Israel's worst defeat since the founding of the Jewish state in 1948. Netanyahu risks being punished for failing to keep his promise to keep Israelis safe.

When the war is over, the three suspended corruption trials against Netanyahu will also start. They could end up with him being sentenced to prison.

Hamas leader Yayha Sinwar. Photo: Adel Hana / AP

More than a terrorist group

As soon as Gaza is opened up and foreign journalists can travel there, the extent of Israel's warfare will be exposed. Israel will be severely judged for the humanitarian disaster it has wrought.

So it is in Netanyahu's interest to keep the war going as long as possible. Therefore, a truce is not a foregone conclusion.

Hamas is admittedly badly damaged and leaderless, but that does not mean that the organization disappears. Israel has assassinated many of their leaders over the years and each time new and more radical ones have taken over.

Hamas is so much more than a militant terrorist group. They run mosques, hospitals and schools in Gaza. There are social assistance programs. This is how they built their popularity in Gaza. Even if it is now severely strained in light of 40,000 dead and the humanitarian disaster that Hamas has inflicted on Gaza.

Hezbollah in Lebanon vows to step up its drone attacks on Israel in revenge for Sinwar's death. However, it is doubtful how much capacity the group has left after Israel knocked out even large parts of its leadership.

The big question remains how Israel will respond to Iran's barrage of rockets a few weeks ago. Will the retaliation be so extensive that Iran feels compelled to respond harshly, which in turn results in an even harsher retaliation from Israel? If the spiral of violence begins in earnest between Iran and Israel, no one knows where it will end.