EU fiasco - zero kronor for Ukraine
Wolfgang Hansson
This is a commentary text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.
Published 2025-03-21 23.40
In words, Europe's leaders continue to express their support for Ukraine "for as long as it takes".
But when it comes to opening their wallets, it is becoming increasingly difficult to achieve results.
The goal at yesterday's EU meeting was 400 billion kronor in military support for Ukraine.
The result was zero kronor.
A fiasco for EU leaders at a time when they are all simultaneously talking about having to step up.
Quick version
Wolfgang Hansson: “Trump prioritizes relations with Russia over Europe”
5:43
When EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas arrived at the summit in Brussels yesterday, her goal was to get member states to invest heavily in helping Ukraine more at a time when it increasingly looks like US President Donald Trump has thrown Ukraine under the bus.
She had been touring European capitals to seek support for her plan. But interest was lukewarm even from major countries such as France, Italy and Spain.
So even though EU leaders, as usual, blamed Hungary's Viktor Orbán when they could not agree on more military support for Ukraine yesterday, the truth is that many other countries are also becoming increasingly hesitant.
There are several reasons.
*The EU has just decided to make a major rearmament and opened up the possibility for member states to borrow large sums to invest in defense. This despite the fact that many of the countries really cannot afford it. This may make some countries more cautious with their spending.
*Trump has completely redrawn the playing field by initiating peace negotiations with Vladimir Putin. This means that many hope for a quick end to the war and do not see the same necessity in sending more weapons to Ukraine. Not if they themselves have to pay.
*In countries that are far from the front and that do not feel the threat from Russia in the same way as northern Europe, popular support for supporting Ukraine militarily is decreasing. Many want to see an end to the war. Leaders such as Spain's Pedro Sanchez and Italy's Giorgia Meloni continue to outwardly support Ukraine but are afraid of being punished by voters if they invest more money in the war.
Nevertheless, the outcome of the EU summit must be seen as a major fiasco for Europe's desire to support Ukraine.
This time, it was about individual countries being forced to contribute their own money because Orbán is blocking more EU support. The EU was going to show that it could defeat Putin's Trojan horse.
That's how it went.
France and others turned against countries contributing in proportion to the size of their economies.
When Kallas realized that she would not get her plan of 40 billion euros in support through, she instead appealed to the member states to agree to invest 50 billion euros to supply Ukraine with two million artillery shells by the end of the year.
A similar appeal was made by President Zelensky via video link to the meeting.
But even that was not enough for the leaders to agree on.
Instead, they sent the President of the European Council, Antonio Costa, who once again assured that Europe would support Ukraine as long as it was needed. A statement that in this context must have felt like a mockery for both Ukraine and everyone else who wants to continue to strengthen Ukraine's resilience.
Now, instead, it will be individual countries who will be able to decide on support. For example, Germany today hammered out a military aid package of just over 35 billion kronor. A package that has been waiting for approval for several months.
The money is of course welcome for Ukraine, but it is unfortunate that the EU is not acting in unison, which has been a strength in the past. It is a signal that Putin will take note of.
Many of Europe's leaders must be seriously concerned.
The war is at a stage where Russia, despite three years of harsh sanctions from the West, continues to gain ground in Ukraine. Albeit at a snail's pace.
There is no indication that Ukraine is capable of any counteroffensive, even with all the weapons it has received from the West.
The area of Kursk province inside Russia that Ukraine managed to capture in August has recently shrunk at an alarming rate. It no longer exists as a card that Ukraine can use in the negotiations for a ceasefire and peace.
This is at the same time that Trump can withdraw US support for Ukraine at any time if Zelensky does not make the concessions that the American president needs to bring the war to an end.
Therefore, it would have been an extra important signal from the EU to increase military support for Ukraine.
I do not want to paint a picture of hell on the wall, but if you put on realistic glasses, it looks anything but bright for Ukraine and for Europe's ability and willingness to continue supporting the country militarily.
Even when it comes to pressure on Russia, there is much that points to a weakening. It is becoming increasingly difficult for the EU to impose new sanctions on Russia or even to keep the old ones alive. This is due to Orbán’s increasingly open opposition. The sanctions require unanimous decisions by all 27 member states.
Another dark cloud looms over the threat that Trump will suddenly decide to reduce or lift US sanctions against Russia as part of his peace plan.
If Europe is left alone, the sanctions will be even more watered down.
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