“It has become a kind of conflict of attrition”
– This has become a kind of conflict of attrition, says Erika Holmquist at FOI.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important shipping lanes for oil and fossil gas, which characterizes the conflict between the US and Iran.
This weekend, the US struck two missile launchers on the island of Larak where Iran, according to the US, was in the process of launching mines into the strait. Iran responded with its own missile attacks aimed at US bases in Jordan and an air base in the United Arab Emirates, but it is unclear whether the projectiles reached their targets.
After more than six months, the war continues, which the US had thought would be over in a few weeks.
– Iran is trying to use the Strait of Hormuz and the trade disruptions there to drag out this conflict and tire out the US, says Erika Holmquist, analyst and research director at the Swedish Defence Research Institute (FOI).
– On the other hand, the US hopes that the very tough economic pressure on Iran will soon force them to the negotiating table.
Iran knows very well
A closed strait means that the price of oil is pushed up – a domestic political powder keg in the US.In this way, Iran could get a more advantageous long-term peace agreement with sanctions relief and continued control over the strait.
– Iran also knows very well that this war is very unpopular in the US, says Holmquist.
Before the war broke out, around 20 million barrels per day passed through Hormuz. Iran claims that the strait is closed, but the US military has protected oil ships that have passed through the southern part of the strait.
Too early to say
A couple of weeks ago, according to Axios, American sources estimated that it is about ten million barrels per day, analysts have talked about at least six to seven million.– In the last two weeks, we have seen that the US seems to have succeeded in creating the conditions for getting some traffic through.
Erika Holmquist says that it is too early to say whether it is enough to force Iran to talk.
– But if they lose Hormuz as a bargaining chip, then I think they will be more inclined to negotiate.
It is unclear how the attacks, blockades and tightened sanctions of recent months have affected Iran.
– Iran's big Achilles heel is the internal situation. The question is how severe economic pressure they can withstand? How bad is their economy and what does their military capacity look like? None of these questions are particularly easy to answer.
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