Three heavy questions on the oil sheik's shoulders

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Columnists  

 

The climate threat 

 

Will the climate summit be like an episode of Breaking Bad?  

 

Jonathan Jeppsson  

 

News and dig manager  

 

This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's. 

 

Updated 09.49 | Published 06.12 

 

Much is at stake when the COP28 climate summit begins today in Dubai. 

 

The talks are led by an oil sheik - and the question is whether he can steer the world away from the catastrophic path we are on. 

 

If he fails, the climate meeting risks becoming like an episode of "Breaking bad".  

 

In an episode of the hugely popular television series "Breaking Bad", one of the main characters, the drug dealer Jesse Pinkman, goes to a rehab meeting.  

He is there under the pretense that he wants to get rid of his drug addiction - but in reality he is there to try to pick up new customers to sell drugs to.  

 

During the group therapy, however, it fails for the constantly hunted Jesse Pinkman: "I'm here to sell meth!", he shouts to the other former addicts.  

 

Drug dealer Jesse Pinkman goes to rehab in the series "Breaking Bad". Photo: Amc  

Leaked documents  

 

The episode has come to light as a similar scenario played out this week when it emerged that the United Arab Emirates - which is hosting the climate talks in Dubai - planned to use the meeting to sell oil.  

 

According to leaked documents published by the BBC, the dictatorship intended to take the opportunity during the climate meeting to discuss different types of fossil fuel agreements with 15 other nations.  

 

The President of the Climate Summit, Sultan al-Jaber. Photo: Kamran Jebreili / AP  

 

It hardly came as a surprise: The president of the climate summit, Sultan al-Jaber, paradoxically led an oil company on Wednesday, a juxtaposition between two incompatible goals worthy of Jean Claude van Damme. But on Wednesday he suddenly and unexpectedly resigned from that post. Despite this, he has forcefully dismissed the accusations as "false, incorrect and untrue".  

 

In October, the average temperature was 1.7 degrees. Photo: Martin Meissner / AP  

Three main questions  

 

Now a heavy responsibility rests on the recently departed oil company boss to steer the world's development away from a disaster. 

 

So what then needs to be done? 

 

Sharpened ambitions. The central issue at COP28 is what is called the "Global stocktake" - a review of the countries' measures and commitments regarding climate work. Ambition must be greatly increased, the plans now in place are completely inadequate and lead to a warming of 2.4-2.9 degrees - a disaster for the planet, or at least its inhabitants.  

 

Although the EU is in a relatively good position, there was a recent report that states that all prioritized goals will be missed. What is interesting in this context, however, is that China's carbon dioxide emissions may reach their peak as early as next year and that the USA's emissions look set to decrease by three percent this year. China previously aimed to reverse its emissions curve only around 2030.  

 

The hope is that the meeting will lead to new and more ambitious national climate ambitions, and where global emissions will be reduced by half by 2030 and reach zero emissions by 2045. In other words, the time is extremely short. And realistically? No, you can't say that.  

 

 

The climate summit COP28 opens today in Dubai Photo: Joshua A. Bickel / AP  

 

Phasing out or phasing out? Despite all the climate promises, the world's planned production of fossil fuels is still twice what is compatible with the Paris Agreement's 1.5 degree target. What is really needed is to set a stop date for fossil fuels. In previous meetings, this has been a complete failure. In addition, following pressure from, among others, India, the wording "phasing out" has been softened to ”phasing down”.

 

 This will be an incredibly difficult nut to crack. Earlier last autumn, China said that it is completely ”unrealistic” to phase out fossil fuels.  

 

Financing. After last year's COP27, it was decided to create a fund where countries can seek compensation for losses and damages caused by climate change. But who will pay and how much? And which countries will receive the support?  

 

That regulatory framework must be set at the year's climate summit. The rich countries need to live up to the promise to double the financing of adaptation measures by 2025.  

 

COP28 is expected to be the largest climate summit to date. Photo: Peter Dejong / AP 

 

Must sober up  

 

After a historic summer and autumn, where heat records were broken on a continuous basis - in October the average temperature was 1,7 degrees - a world doped up on fossil fuels needs to sober up.  

 

70,000 people are expected to attend in Dubai, which would make COP28 the largest climate summit to date.  

 

The hope is that Sultan al-Jaber has talents other than selling more of the same kind to the already dependent. 

 

Build-up to the summit. Photo: Rafiq Maqbool/AP