Is Netanyahu trying to put Trump in power?

Donald Trump

Is Netanyahu trying to help Trump?

Wolfgang Hansson

This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.

Updated 21.25 | Published 21.10
 

Quick version

• Kamala Harris' campaign in Georgia and Michigan is under threat from Muslim voters who may choose to stay home or vote for a third candidate if she does not act against Israel's military actions in Gaza.
• A cease-fire in Gaza and a halt to arms exports to Israel could boost Harris' chances in the presidential election, but Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu may prefer Trump to win the election.
• Netanyahu could delay a truce to support Trump, who is willing to give Israel more freedom in the region, while Harris could threaten an arms export freeze to Israel to bring about a peaceful solution.

ATLANTA, GEORGIA. Attempts to bring about a truce are going on in the last days before the presidential election in the United States.

An end to the killing of civilians in Gaza increases Harris's chances of victory.

But the question is whether Israel's Netanyahu wants to help her or prefers Donald Trump.

When Kamala Harris held her major campaign rally in Washington on Tuesday, Palestinian protesters were ejected from the rally for chanting slogans and disrupting Harris' speech.

On the other side of the fence south of the White House, no one could stop the loud choirs of speakers with slogans such as "Stop the Genocide" and "Free Palestine". They were banging their plastic barrels so loudly that it was difficult to understand Harris' speech.

Protests that dogged Kamala Harris throughout the election campaign.

In most states she can ignore them because the Democrats win those states anyway. But in Georgia and especially Michigan, voters with roots in the Middle East can make the decision.

There, it is so razor-sharp between Trump and Harris that even very small shifts in voter opinion can have a decisive impact on the outcome.

About 300,000 Muslims live in Michigan. In the 2020 election, Biden won the state by 150,000 votes.

In Michigan, there is an intense campaign calling on Kamala Harris not to vote unless she promises to ban arms sales to Israel or bring about a cease-fire that means an end to the killing of civilians in Gaza.

The campaign was already started against Joe Biden's time before the primaries at the beginning of the year. More than 100,000 voted for "no candidate" rather than vote for Biden.

If the strength of that protest carries over to Tuesday's election, Harris could lose Michigan because Muslim voters stay home or vote for a third candidate.

About 125,000 Muslims live here in Georgia. Given that Biden only won the state by less than 12,000 votes in 2020, a widespread boycott of Harris by the Muslim population could mean that Trump takes home this key state.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Photo: Richard Drew/AP

Normally, the majority of the Muslim population in the United States votes for the Democrats. That a majority of those outraged by Israel's warfare in Gaza would suddenly vote for Trump is not likely.

But even if they just stay home, the Muslim voters can decide the election by increasing Trump's percentage share of the vote.

It is far from certain that those who threaten to boycott will actually abstain from voting in the end. If Trump becomes president, the risk increases that he will give Netanyahu almost free rein to do what he wants with the Palestinians in the area. Trump is an even worse option for the Palestinian population.

It is not entirely unlikely that Netanyahu is deliberately refusing to end the war as a way to help Trump win the election. The Israeli military is increasingly signaling that they have achieved the military objectives that can be achieved in both Gaza and Lebanon and that the politicians should now try to reach a settlement of habitual rest.

But Netanyahu shows no such will. He knows that Trump will not make a lot of demands regarding the rights of the Palestinians. Netanyahu probably benefits from having Trump in the White House. During his last term as president, he moved the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and did nothing to stop Israel's settlement expansion in the West Bank.

With Harris, there is the risk that she threatens to stop some arms exports to Israel if Netanyahu does not make more of an effort to bring about a ceasefire in both Gaza and Lebanon.

A truce would not entirely satisfy America's Muslims. But it would likely increase their propensity to vote for Harris.

That's why Joe Biden is working hard behind the scenes until the very end to try to get one.