EU cooperation threatened if the extreme parties win

Columnists  

 

The EU election  

 

The expected success of extreme parties threatens EU cooperation 

 

Wolfgang Hansson  

 

This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.  

 

Published 6:00 p.m  

 

Photo: Fredrik Persson/TT

The signs in the sky are already visible.  

 

Extreme and populist parties on the right but also on the left will achieve great success in the EU elections this year. This is confirmed by a new survey.  

 

The consequence may be that support for Ukraine will decrease and that it will be more difficult to face the climate threat. 

 

Interest in the European Parliament elections at the beginning of June is rather lukewarm in most countries. Many citizens barely know it is taking place. Voter turnout is significantly lower than in national elections. This is despite the fact that the parliament now has great influence over many decisions. 

 

Far-right and populist parties have realized that the European arena is an opportunity for them to usurp power that they have more difficulty gaining at home.  

 

Ever since 2014, these parties have advanced strongly in the EU elections. A trend that experts are convinced will continue in this year's election. 

 

The political middle is shrinking and the extremes are growing.  

 

The think tank European Council of Foreign Relations, ECFR, has come up with a new report in which, based on opinion polls and experience from previous EU elections, they assess that populist anti-EU parties will be the biggest pair in nine countries in the EU elections. This includes some of the largest countries and founders of the EU such as Italy, France, Belgium and the Netherlands. 

 

In another nine countries, the right-wing populists become the second or third party. Including Sweden, Germany and Spain. 

 

If this prediction comes true, it could mean major changes for EU cooperation. Today, it is traditional conservative and social democratic parties that dominate the EU Parliament together with liberals and environmental parties.  

 

All these groups will lose places track the report. After the summer, it may be the first time that the conservatives together with the extreme right can get their own majority in parliament. 

 

We have already seen  how resistance at the national level to cooperating with extremist parties has been broken in almost all countries. Far-right parties are today in government or as support parties to governments in many countries. There is reason to believe that the same development will also affect the EU Parliament. 

 

If the power relations change, there is also a great risk that the EU will take a different direction on important issues.  

 

Today, the EU as a bloc is a leader in the world when it comes to taking measures to face climate change. This could change if right-wing populists who are often climate skeptics gain more influence.  

 

We have seen how Sweden's climate ambitions have been greatly reduced by SD's influence in the government. The same thing can happen at EU level.  

 

The EU is about to adopt a new migration pact. With greater influence for right-wing radical parties, there may be tougher measures. The migration issue is one of the big issues for voters in the EU elections.  

 

So far, the EU has shown great agreement regarding support for Ukraine. Hungary is indeed blocking a decision to give Ukraine SEK 500 billion over a four-year period. But the rest of the EU intends to surround Hungary if they do not give in.  

 

After the EU elections, it may become significantly more difficult to get support for Ukraine heard. Above all in the former Eastern Europe, there are far-right parties that are pro-Russian and want to reduce or abolish support for Ukraine. Several of these are expected to advance strongly in the election. 

 

But even the German Alternative for Germany, the AfD and Marine Le Pen's French National Assembly are very pro-Russia. AfD is expected to double its seats in the EU Parliament.  

 

The EU is planning a major enlargement with countries in the Balkans and eventually Ukraine. It will be difficult to implement if extreme parties get more say. It also becomes more difficult to punish countries like Hungary when they do not uphold basic democratic values.  

 

Of course, the right-wing populists hope that their expected success in the EU elections will also give rise to the national elections that await later in the year and next year in countries such as Austria, Croatia, Romania and Germany.  

 

The threat of a sharp right turn in Europe also rests over the shadow of the American presidential election. Donald Trump has won the first two primary elections in the United States by a superior margin. Everything indicates that he will be the candidate of the Republican Party. The opinion polls give him a good chance to beat Joe Biden in November.  

 

We could then have a situation where a strong right-wing shift in Europe is also followed by four new years of Trump's conservative chaos, where one of the cornerstones could be to abolish NATO.  

 

If we think that the last few years have been turbulent, the risk is obvious that 2024 could top it.

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