Presidential election in Finland - why you should care

Columnists 

 

Pekka Haavisto  

 

Putin's shadow rests over Finland's presidential election 

 

Wolfgang Hansson  

 

This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.  

 

Published 08.57  

 

Presidential elections in Finland rarely interest a broad Swedish public. 

 

But this year there is reason to change attitudes.  

 

The presidential election takes place in the shadow of an increasingly aggressive Vladimir Putin. 

 

Since the President of Finland is responsible for foreign policy, whoever is elected is put to extra tough tests.  

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin. Photo: Pavel Bednyakov / AP  

 

I am old enough to remember the old Finnish presidential icon Urho Kekkonen who was in office for 26 years. Once he threw in the towel in 1982, it was due to health issues rather than intense resignation demands. 

 

Kekkonen eventually became a popular father of the country because he kept Finland safe and secure despite the powerful neighbor, the communist empire of the Soviet Union. That it happened through a certain subservience to Moscow went under the concept of Finlandization. A majority of the population thought it wise not to unnecessarily provoke or challenge the Soviet Union. For example by joining NATO. 

 

The consequence was that Finland was always on "speaking terms" with the Kremlin, in contrast to many others in Europe.  

 

All that changed overnight when Putin decided to invade Ukraine on February 24, 2022.  

 

Outgoing President Sauli Niinistö was the one who steered Finland into the Western Defense Alliance. On Sunday, the Finns will appoint his successor.  

 

The incoming president will have a completely new situation where Finland is a NATO member and an important part of the alliance's defense against Russia. 

 

Former President of Finland Sauli Niinistö. Photo: Magnus Sandberg  

 

Suddenly, the 135-mile-long border with Russia has become a security policy hot potato.  

 

Therefore, it is not only important for Finland who holds the presidency.  

 

The Presidenten has extraordinarily large powers in terms of foreign and security policy, but largely has no say at all in domestic policy.  

 

Not least for Sweden, as a future NATO member and close ally, it will be important who sits in the presidential palace in Helsinki.  

 

The favoritism has shifted during the election campaign, but it can be stated with considerable certainty that it is a battle between former foreign minister Pekka Haavisto, 65, and former foreign minister and prime minister Alexander Stubb, 55.  

 

Haavisto is an environmentalist and is considered the candidate of the left, even though he is formally running as an independent. He was the one who ran Finland's NATO process together with President Nininstöö. It is the third time he is running.  

Pekka Haavisto. Photo: Jonas Ekströmer/TT / TT News Agency  

 

He is a calm, pragmatic and trust-inspiring leader who can undoubtedly play the role of a statesman. In an increasingly modern Finland, it does not occur to him that he would then become Finland's first openly gay president.  

 

Initially he was the favorite, but in the race he has been overtaken by the bourgeois candidate Alexander Stubb, a friend of Carl Bildt. As a person, he is in many ways Haavisto's opposite.  

 

Stubb is extremely outgoing, even flamboyant. Although he tried to downplay that side in the election campaign. A happy crowd is perhaps not what Finns are primarily looking for in a president. 

 

Stubb, who is Swedish-speaking, has broad international experience and a very large network of contacts since his time as Minister for Foreign Affairs and Minister for Foreign Trade and Europe. He has a doctor's hat from the London School of Economics and, unlike many other Finnish politicians, speaks flawless English. He is currently a professor at the European University in Florence.  

 
 

Alexander Stubb. Photo: Vesa Moilanen / AP  

 

What is wrong with him is that he is seen by some as arrogant and a bit easy-going. He sometimes gives the impression that he is more interested in sports than in politics. As a young man, he planned to become a golf professional. Nowadays it's the triathlon that counts.  

 

His one-year tenure as prime minister ended in chaos. But no one can question his foreign policy credentials. 

 

The two favorites do not lack challengers. A total of nine candidates stand in the election. The true Finns' Jussi Halla-aho has climbed strongly in the polls in the final sprint but he will be out of luck in the unlikely event that he advances to a second round.  

 

Due to the large starting field, a second round of elections on February 11 is more or less a given. It is unlikely that any candidate will receive at least 50 percent of the vote in the first. Stubb is at 27 percent in opinion polls. Haavisto at 23. Halla-aho is third with 12 percent.  

 

The choice is really a purely personal matter. All the leading candidates have the attitude that Finland must dare to stand up to Russia. The time of Finnishization is over. But despite that, the new president's main task will be to avoid war with his powerful neighbor.  

 

Despite the long border to the east, it will undeniably be a little easier when Finland can rely on NATO's collective defense guarantee. A Russian attack on Finland would be considered an attack on all NATO countries.