Three soldiers dead - how hard does he dare to fight back?

 

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Joe Biden 

 

Biden's unwelcome dilemma - how hard does he dare to fight back? 

 

Wolfgang Hansson  

 

This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.  

 

Updated 18.41 | Published 18.15  

 

A difficult and unwelcome dilemma has been thrown into the lap of President Joe Biden.  

 

He does not want a major war in the Middle East. Americans are war-weary and that would reduce his chances in the presidential election.  

 

At the same time, he must act against Iran after the death of three American soldiers. 

 

Iran-backed groups have attacked US bases in Jordan, Syria and Iraq more than 150 times since the war in Gaza began just over three months ago.  

 

But US air defenses have been able to shoot down most enemy missiles. Before yesterday, US soldiers had only been wounded but none killed.  

 

Therefore, Biden has been able to tolerate the attacks as a side effect of Israel's bombardment of Gaza. He has chosen to respond only to a limited extent to the attacks. 

 

But the attack on an American base in Jordan, where three American soldiers were killed, has completely changed the conditions.  

 

Admittedly, it is not entirely clear whether the attack was ordered by Iran or whether it was one of the Islamist rebel groups in Syria or Iraq who acted on their own initiative. But no matter what, they could not have carried out the attack without the support of Iran, which provides them with money and weapons. 

 

Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, during a meeting in Tehran the other day. According to IRNA, he called on all countries in the region to "cut the lifeline" for Israel. Photo: Office Of The Iranian Supreme Leader Via AP   

 

For Joe Biden, there is a lot at stake.  

 

The American people are extremely war-weary after the failed American military adventures in Iran and Afghanistan.  

 

The Biden-led chaotic retreat from Kabul remains on many retinas. People are terrified that the United States will be seriously involved in a new war in which thousands of American soldiers will die. Especially if it is a war on the other side of the globe with unclear objectives. 

 

At the same time, Biden is under heavy pressure from heavy Republican politicians to act.  

 

Senator Lindsey Graham urges Biden to "strike hard on Iran". The same tone is heard from Mitch McConnell, the Republican minority leader in the Senate.  

 

Biden's likely challenger in the presidential election, Donald Trump,unsurprisingly claims that the attack could never have happened if he had been president. 

 

He demands a return to his policies in the White House when the United States, according to Trump, created "peace through strength" and condemns Biden as commander. 

 

In other words, the Republicans are trying to use the attack as a pawn in the election campaign by undermining support for Biden. 

 

The president has already said that the United States will respond. He is trying to buy some time and room for maneuver by saying that the US itself chooses the time and form of the counterattack. 

 

Joe Biden during a moment of silence for the three dead soldiers. Photo: Jacquelyn Martin/AP  

 

Joe Biden is balancing on a tightrope. It is important to find the right level of the answer. Hard enough for Iran to receive a clear signal that they have gone too far, but not so extensive that Iran feels that they in turn must respond directly to the US and thus risk a major war. 

 

If the response is perceived as too weak by a large part of the American people and the Republican Party, Biden risks criticism for being too weak.  

 

Regardless, that criticism will come from Trump and his party, but as long as the majority in the United States considers the answer to be balanced, Biden can come out of the unwelcome situation for him strengthened. 

 

Biden must also take into account that the Gaza war is in a delicate situation.  

 

The New York Times reported this weekend that negotiations are underway in Paris for a longer truce of perhaps two months in exchange for Hamas releasing its Israeli hostage in exchange for Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli prisons.  

 

A too rash and forceful response from the US could torpedo the peace negotiations and thwart a deal between Israel and Hamas.  

 

Biden wants an end to the war as quickly as possible and definitely before the election campaign in the United States begins in earnest this fall.  

 

Drone image of US military base. Picture taken last October. Photo: Planet Labs Pbc/AP  

The deadly attack on the US base in Jordan is just the latest in a series of incidents that threaten to escalate. It includes the Huthi rebels' shelling of civilian shipping in the Red Sea, Hizbollah's shelling of northern Israel and Israel's assassination of a Hamas leader in southern Lebanon.

Individually they are not sufficient to expand the war but it only takes one miscalculation on one side for a larger war to break out.  

This despite the fact that neither side actually wants a major conflict.  

There are some similarities between today's situation in the world and what prevailed before the First World War. No one wanted a world war but it broke out anyway. 

For Biden, it is important to find an answer that deters Iran without setting the world on fire and thereby thwarting his chances of defeating Trump in November.