The Russian Invasion|Putin's Russia

Expert: Russia wants to create concerns about escalation  

The fact that Transnistria is asking Russia for "protection" may be a way for the Kremlin to remind the West that the Ukraine war may escalate. Kristina Melin, security policy analyst at FOI, tells TT. 

 

- This is done with at least a good Russian memory, or at a direct Russian request, she says.  

 

The US State Department has reacted to the development of events and states that it is following Russia's actions in Transnistria very closely.  

 

- The United States firmly supports Moldova's independence and territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders, says department spokesman Matthew Miller according to AFP.

 

Currently, Russia has around 1,500 "peacekeeping" soldiers in Transnistria. According to Kristina Melin, however, the possibilities for Russia to act militarily based on the breakaway region are very limited.

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Russia: Priority to "protect" Transnistria  

 

Protecting the people of Transnistria is a priority for Russia. This is what the country's foreign minister Sergey Lavrov says to state news media, according to AFP. In the statement, he calls the residents "our countrymen".  

 

The breakaway Moldovan region earlier on Wednesday asked Russia for "protection" from Moldova's economic policies. At the turn of the year, the country introduced tariffs on imports and exports to and from Transnistria, which borders Ukraine, according to AP.  

 

The American think tank ISW has recently warned that Russia will try to annex Transnistria. In an internationally contested referendum in 2006, 98 percent of residents voted to remain in Russia, and as recently as January 2023, the region's president Vadim Krasnoselsky expressed an intention to follow the referendum, according to ISW. 

 

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Expert: Russia wants to remind about risk of escalation 

 

Telegram from TT / Omni  

28 February 2024, 18.47 [Johan Hallnäs/TT]  

 

 

That Transnistria wants "protection" from Russia can be seen against the background that Russia wants to destabilize countries in the immediate area, according to Kristina Melin at FOI. 

 

- Russia is looking for ways to remind the West that the Ukraine war can escalate and the risk associated with it, she says.  

 

The government of the Moldovan breakaway region of Transnistria has asked Russia for what is described as "protection". The reason is said to be "increased pressure from Moldova".  

 

The strip of land has a pro-Russian leadership, and Russia has had a hand in the game regarding the latest developments, believes Kristina Melin, security policy analyst at FOI. 

 

- This is done with at least a good Russian memory, or at a direct Russian request, she says.  

 

Don't want to see integration  

 

An underlying reason for the new step may be to try to sow further uncertainty around the possibility that the war in Ukraine could escalate. The fact that in recent years Moldova has introduced laws to try to make Transnistria become more of an ordinary part of the country, as well as that Moldova has increasingly moved closer to the West, may be behind this.  

 

- Russia does not want Moldova to be integrated into Western structures. They have used their Russian-backed breakaway republics before, both in Georgia and Ukraine, but also earlier in Transnistria, to prevent this.  

 

Russia has approximately 1,500-1,800 troops in Transnistria in Russian uniform, and there are very limited opportunities for Russia to act militarily based on the breakaway region, says Melin. Right now, Transnistria also does not pose any major military threat to Ukraine in the ongoing war.  

 

Unresolved in Russian interest 

 

It is difficult to assess how the Kremlin will handle the situation going forward. But it is likely that Russian President Vladimir Putin will comment on the situation in some way on Wednesday, when he delivers a line speech before the Russian parliament.  

 

- It is in Moscow's interest that this territorial conflict remains unresolved, and when Russia creates further friction, it helps Russia's interests, says Kristina Melin.