What does Putin have in his binoculars? Maybe Putin wants to shift the focus to the Baltic Sea region It can be tempting to provoke quarrels with NATO countries

Wolfgang Hansson

Published: Less than 3 hours ago 

This is a commentary text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.

COLUMNISTS 

Ukraine has the right to make its own decisions, says President Putin when the country he invaded and does not even acknowledge is on the threshold of a candidate country for the EU. 

But when Lithuania stops Russian goods with reference to EU sanctions, the Kremlin flies to the roof. 

What does Putin have in his binoculars? 

The suspicion arises that Russia is considering starting a new front in the war by attacking Lithuania, a NATO country. 

It is at least a possible interpretation of the very threatening rhetoric from close associates of Putin after Lithuania stopped Russian goods that are under EU sanctions. 

Steel and building materials belong to what can no longer be transported by rail from Lithuania to the Russian enclave (exclave) Kaliningrad on the Baltic Sea. 

Fågelvägen only 30-40 km from Sweden. Military confrontations there mean that the war comes much closer to Sweden and that the entire Baltic Sea region would be affected. 

Kaliningrad is the headquarters of the Russian Baltic Fleet and the Russians are said to have placed nuclear-armed Iskander robots on the territory. 

Russia sees the embargo as a hostile act and a blockade. At the same time, there is nothing to stop them from taking the same goods by sea directly to Kaliningrad. Therefore, it all appears more like a pretext for mucking quarrels. 

"In the near future, we will respond with measures that will have very negative consequences for the people of Lithuania," said Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of Russia's Security Council.

"We will respond with measures that will have very negative consequences for the people of Lithuania", says Nikolai Patrushev Photo: Sergei Karpukhin / AP 

Russia sees the embargo as a hostile act and a blockade. Photo: AP 

The rhetoric is rock hard 

Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov followed up with: 

- The transit stop is a crime against everything. The situation is very serious and requires a deep analysis before we prepare our countermeasures. 

Exactly what that means is difficult to know. But it is noted that the rhetoric is rock hard compared to the Russian reactions to the news that EU leaders are likely to approve Ukraine as a candidate country before the weekend. 

It was to stop Ukraine's path towards the EU and NATO that Russia started the war on 24 February. President Putin has made it clear that Ukraine has no right to exist as a sovereign nation. 

At the same time, Russia's president now says that it is up to Ukraine itself whether they want to join the EU or not. 

A difficult logic to understand. 

Perhaps he is trying to play down the question of candidate status because it is such a clear sign that Russia's war, instead of preventing Ukraine from ending up in the Western camp, has accelerated the process. 

Putin's war has had the opposite effect to what the Russians had in mind. 

Just as Sweden and Finland's NATO applications are a major setback for the Kremlin.

Putin has made it clear that Ukraine has no right to exist as a sovereign nation. Photo: Sergei Bobylev / AP 

Putin totally masters the message 

Therefore, the strong reactions to the implementation of the sanctions agreed by Lithuania throughout the EU appear to be disproportionately aggressive. 

There can be several reasons. 

Russia does not tolerate the Baltic states stepping up. Putin considers Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania as part of the Russian Empire. Every time one of the countries takes a stand against Russia, Moscow reacts with anger and bullying. 

Russia wants to shift its focus from the war in Ukraine to the Baltic Sea, where NATO is now strengthening its defenses thanks to Finland's and Sweden's future NATO membership. 

Although the war is no longer as bad for Russia, the advance in the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine is slow and costly. In domestic politics, it can be tempting to provoke a quarrel with a NATO country that without the military alliance's defense guarantee would be an easy prey for Russia. 

To then blame NATO. Putin totally masters the message in the Russian media. 

The key question is whether Russia's purpose is to escalate tensions but keep hostilities at a verbal level. Or if you are also prepared to take military action.

" "If Putin had reasoned rationally, he would not have carried out a full-scale invasion of Ukraine almost four months ago." Photo: Vadim Ghirda / AP  

Very serious escalation 

 

Military strategic experts usually point to the narrow strip of land that connects Poland with Lithuania, the so-called Suwalki Corridor. If the Russians take it, they will bind Kaliningrad with Russian-allied Belarus while cutting off the Baltic states from the EU. 

 

But such an operation means that Russia must attack at least one NATO country, Lithuania. It would automatically trigger NATO's guarantee of defense and lead to a very serious escalation of the war. 

 

Putin should not be able to afford it when the Russian army is at the same time fully occupied in Ukraine.

 

Such an attack would in many ways drive Russia crazy. But if Putin had reasoned rationally, he would not have carried out a full-scale invasion of Ukraine almost four months ago. 

 

The President of Ukraine has warned that Russia is likely to escalate the war ahead of the announcement that the EU will give Ukraine candidate status. Maybe that's exactly what Putin is doing. But he is turning his attention to one of NATO's weakest countries. Maybe to test whether NATO's defense guarantee really applies in a sharp situation. 

 

As usual, it is difficult, if not impossible, to know what Putin has in his sights. Which does not exactly dampen the concerns of the outside world.