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Wolfgang Hansson

How far is a crowded Putin prepared to go?

PUBLISHED: LESS THAN 50 MIN THEN

UPDATED: LESS THAN 40 MIN SINCE

COLUMNISTS

Miscalculation has followed miscalculation in Vladimir Putin's latest war adventure.

Admittedly, it is good that Western sanctions are getting tougher than ever and that Ukraine is resisting strongly.

But it is difficult to know how a troubled Putin will act. How far is he willing to go to not be a loser?

For many years, it felt like the geopolitical winds favored Putin. The United States had a president who praised him. The superpower almost voluntarily abdicated from the role of world policeman. Russia backed the Assad regime in Syria militarily without anyone protesting. Putin annexed Crimea with minimal bloodshed.

With small efforts, he really moved Russia's position forward.

This makes his full-scale invasion of Ukraine all the more incomprehensible.

How could he believe that his army could defeat a giant country like Ukraine in a few days or weeks? A total miscalculation.

Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Photo: Yuri Kochetkov / AP

How could Putin imagine that the Ukrainians would accept Russia as a liberator? Anyone could have told him that the last thing the Ukrainians want is to live under Russian occupation.

It is easier to understand that he calculated that the western world would have a hard time gathering for some more tangible sanctions. Although the West was very noisy after the annexation of Crimea, it took a long time to get sanctions in place. Once there, they were not very painful.

It might have worked if Putin had contented himself with taking Luhansk and Donetsk, the two breakaway republics that Russia had already partially occupied. At that time, the West would have found it more difficult to start a full-scale economic war against Russia. Now he simply went too far.

Instead of splitting the EU and NATO, Putin has managed to get them to show an unprecedented united front.

Dissatisfaction is growingNot even the wave of refugees that Putin has deliberately created by terrorizing civilians has so far had the intended effect on Europe. Instead of closing their borders and arguing over who should receive the war refugees, the most refugee-hostile countries in Eastern Europe have opened their homes to them.

After all the miscalculations and two weeks of war, it looks dark for Putin. His war machine has largely run aground even though they are slowly taking up more territory.

He has received almost the whole world against him. Even best friend China is hesitant about Russian aggression. The other day, President Xi Jinping demanded "maximum restraint." A clear fit for Putin.

With a combination of courage and humor, President Zelensky has proven to be a master at getting the outside world to help Ukraine while Russia becomes increasingly isolated. The passenger plane is on the ground. Russian athletes are persona non grata in all international competitions. Now the Russians can no longer even buy Ikea furniture, eat at McDonalds or have a coffee at Starbucks.

Dissatisfaction at home with the war will grow sharply as the economy collapses.

Maybe in a few months Putin will succeed in occupying large parts of Ukraine. But to what use?

What is he going to do with another giant country when the majority of the 44 million people want to see Putin dangling from the gallows? A sound regime will inevitably be met by a guerrilla army, richly equipped by NATO, that will kill as many Russian soldiers as they can.

More civilian casualtiesThat it looks bad for Putin is good. His unprovoked attack on a democratic neighbor must not succeed.

But all success for the resistance also has a downside.

Putin is a very dangerous man even under normal circumstances. There is much to suggest that he becomes even more dangerous when he sees no way out of the war. No opportunity to save face.

Admittedly, one should not underestimate a dictator's ability to reshape reality and then present that image to a Russian public that is sadly ill-informed about the war, but given the goals Putin set out in public, it will be difficult for him to back down.

The risk is that he takes in even harder to get his will through.

In that case, we can expect an even more intense grenade rain over Ukraine's cities, where the number of civilian casualties will increase many times over. But if that's not enough, Putin has already rattled off the ultimate weapon, nuclear weapons.

Normally, I would not worry about those threats. He has ridden with them so many times. But right now, Putin feels more unstable and more erratic than ever before.

Then it is important to be prepared for everything.