Therefore, the bill for the weapons has not been paid yet

Niclas Vent

This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.

Updated 10.26 | Published 2024-02-20 22.59

Sweden has now donated weapons worth SEK 29.3 billion to Ukraine.

But the real cost is still ahead of us.

It's cheap to give away stuff you already have.

Buying new stuff, on the other hand, is very expensive - and when it comes to weapons, it also takes a long time to get them.

What Sweden has given to Ukraine has so far not cost an excessive amount of money. Instead, we have paid in reduced defense capabilities and sent a large part of the bill to the future.

An example:

In February last year, Sweden gave away, among other things, tanks, artillery pieces and anti-aircraft guns valued at SEK 6.3 billion.

But in the extra budget, the defense received only SEK 729 million, of which SEK 205 million was to be used to buy new equipment.

So approximately 3 percent of the sum given away.

Battleship 90. Photo: Aftonbladet/ 85326

The bill will instead land in the years to come, when we in Sweden will succeed with an expensive three-stage rocket:

• Continue to support Ukraine.
• Buy new to replace what we gave away.
• And not least : Actually increase the striking power of the Armed Forces.

It was because our defense was too weak that the parties in the Riksdag agreed in March 2022 to go towards 2 percent of GDP for military defense. Then we wouldn't have given away much at all.

But a large part of the extra money will now have to go to just raising the defense to the same level as before February 2022.

What awaits, then, are large costs that we have not yet incurred.

The increase in defense appropriations in this year's budget is historically very large: SEK 27 billion.

But the equivalent of that entire increase for this year, and more besides, would thus be needed just to replace what we have given away so far.

In addition, it is expensive to buy new.

The army staff warns that some prices have doubled - or increased even more.

When Norway placed an order for 54 new Leopard 2 tanks last year, they cost around SEK 390 million each.

Just to replace the 10 Leopard 2 tanks we donated to Ukraine would therefore cost almost SEK 4 billion at that price - and the price has very likely gone up since then.

On Thursday, the government is to come forward with an extra amendment budget of SEK 9.8 billion, but the finance minister could not answer at a press conference today exactly how much of the money actually goes to new acquisitions.

The new acquisition of combat vehicles that the government wants to finance in its latest support package gives an indication of how expensive it can be.

Sweden is about to order replacement wagons for the 50 Combat Vehicles 90 we donated to Ukraine. There will be newly built vehicles from Hägglunds in Örnsköldsvik, with a 35-millimeter cannon, instead of the 40-millimeter cannon that previous vehicles had.

As part of that production run, SEK 1 billion in Ukraine aid will be used to build around 10 new CV 90s for Ukraine – which could arrive on the battlefields in two years at the earliest.

 

Photo: Krister Hansson

Politicians and the Armed Forces always emphasize that support for Ukraine is important for Swedish security.

Russia must not win the war.

The Swedes agree. At the beginning of the year, 8 out of 10 wanted to maintain or increase support for Ukraine, in a survey by Aftonbladet/Demoskop.

But the Armed Forces' existing stocks were hardly full before the war began, and have been depleted ever since. When we continue to support Ukraine, it will not be possible to the same extent to pick from the stocks and postpone the costs to the future.

Sweden is certainly not alone in this problem. All of Europe is in the same situation.

At the same time, 2024 looks set to be a fateful year on the battlefields of Ukraine.

Europe is rich. We can afford it, and a free continent is worth the price. Everyone just needs to be aware that it will cost.