Sudden turn in the whale rumble - could be manipulation

The US presidential election
New poll: Trump leads in all swing states
Pulling away from the betting market

Ellen Sundstrom

Updated 00.34 | Published 00.12

The opinion numbers point upwards for Trump. At the same time, his great leadership in the betting market is being questioned. Photo: AP

Kamala Harris leads in the national opinion polls ahead of the US election.

But now Donald Trump has an upper hand in all the wave master states.

In the betting market, the belief is also strong that Trump will take home the victory.

With 16 days to go before the US election, Harris leads Trump by 1.2 percentage points, according to a recent poll from Real Clear Politics. Harris has 49.3 percent of support, compared to Trump's 48.1 percent.

The poll also shows that Trump has increased his lead in all swing states except North Carolina and Wisconsin, compared to a week ago. In North Carolina, Trump has gone from leading Harris by 1 percentage point on October 12, to leading by 0.5 percentage points on October 19.

In the wave champion state of Wisconsin, on the other hand, it is almost a tie in the opinion polls. On October 19, Trump led by just 0.2 percentage points. A week ago, however, it looked different. On October 12, on the contrary, Harris had the upper hand, leading by 0.3 percentage points.

The state where Trump leads the most is Arizona. There, Trump leads by 1.6 percentage points, compared to a week ago when he led by 1.0 percentage points over Harris.

Trump leads overall in swing states in a tally of the latest polls. Photo: Realclearpolitics

Betting market: Trump wins

Although the opinion polls show that the race is very even between Trump and Harris, the betting market shows a different version.

According to sources to Business Insider, individuals or groups have bet as much as a total of $30 million that Trump will win the election on the platform

, writes The Economic Times.

The odds on Polymarket now say that Trump has a 60 percent chance of winning, and on the website Election Betting Odds the figure is 57 percent. Trump's odds on the platforms have increased sharply recently, and there has been speculation among political pundits and people on social media that high-profile figures could have an influence on the betting market.

Trump has sailed up as the favorite in the betting markets.

"Deliberate manipulation"

Political strategist Tom Bonier, senior adviser at research firm TargetSmart, told Fortune magazine that he believes the Trump efforts are part of "a concerted effort to change the perception of this election," according to Newsweek.

- A central argument has emerged in the last few weeks of this campaign: strength versus weakness. Donald Trump's persona, and therefore his voter support, relies on being seen as strong. But if the public perception is that he will lose, everything falls apart, he says.

Political analyst Christopher Gerlacher, who studies market trends, told The Daily Beast that "the rise in the Polymarket is almost certainly about deliberate manipulation of the market."

FACTS

The standings in the wave master states on October 19:

• Arizona: Trump leads by 1,6 1.6 percentage points.
• Nevada: Trump leads by 0.8 percentage points.
• Wisconsin: Trump leads by 0.2 percentage points.
• Michigan: Trump leads by 1.2 percentage points.
• Pennsylvania: Trump leads by 0.7 percentage points.
• North Carolina: Trump leads by 0.5 percentage points.
• Georgia: Trump leads by 1.8 percentage points.

Source: Real Clear Politics