Strong El Niño to last until February

 

Gustav Sjöholm/TT

 

Published 08.00

         

         Drought – and floods – await in El Niño's wake. The image from Colombia 2024. Photo: Ivan                     Valencia /AP/TT

The El Niño weather phenomenon is in full swing, and is expected to cause weather disturbances until at least February next year, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

El Niño is a naturally recurring phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean, which has a strong impact on weather in a large part of the world. A new analysis by the WMO states that the phenomenon will intensify and have a major impact on rainfall and temperatures, with increased risks of flooding in some places, but also drought and extreme heat in other places.

The risk of El Niño lasting until at least February next year is essentially one hundred percent, although the peak is expected to be reached around the turn of the year.

Disturbances already

The name of the phenomenon – the baby boy – refers to the birth of the baby Jesus, Christmas time, when El Niño is usually strongest. But despite the cute name, El Niño can have a massive impact on societies and economies around the world, warns WMO Director Celeste Saulo in a press release:

“We are already seeing disruption and devastation from drought and flooding, and we expect these consequences to increase as El Niño intensifies,” she says.

El Niño is about winds over the Pacific Ocean stopping or turning east, which causes warm surface water to spread towards the western part of South America.

Worse with climate change

The complex interaction with the atmosphere normally leads to drier weather over the Amazon, a warmer Caribbean and northwestern North America, while the southern United States becomes colder and wetter. It is usually hot and dry in Southeast Asia, while large parts of Australia also become dry and hot.

Scientists have had difficulty seeing links to climate change because the phenomenon itself varies, but a recent study published in Science suggests that El Niño is intensifying in a warmer world, and that the variability is already 37 percent greater than in a pre-industrial world.