Russia's invasion of Ukraine
Dare the West defy Putin's threat?
Wolfgang Hansson
This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.
Published 2024-09-13 16.44
Western leaders face a difficult dilemma at a time when the war in Ukraine is at a crossroads.
Should they once again be intimidated by Putin's threats or give Ukraine permission to attack targets deep inside Russia?
The decision will be decisive for how the war develops.
The pattern has been the same ever since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.
Putin rattles off his nuclear weapons and the West hesitates to what extent it dares to help Ukraine.
This has meant delays in aid to Ukraine that have had a negative impact on the battlefield, seen from Ukrainian and Western eyes.
Now we stand there again.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has long appealed to the West to allow his army to use the advanced, long-range weapons it received from NATO to strike targets deep inside Russia. The bases and airfields Russia uses to attack Ukraine. The weapons depots and logistics routes used to bring weapons and personnel to the front.
He has described it as Ukraine fighting with one hand tied behind its back when you cannot strike the Russian targets that contribute to so much death and destruction inside Ukraine.
Both the US and the UK are hinting that they are now about to change their minds and give Ukraine more freedom. Not least after it became known that Iran has started supplying Russia with long-range robots.
Something that yesterday made Vladimir Putin utter yet another of his threats.
- In that case, NATO will be at war with Russia, thundered Putin. Given that it fundamentally changes the conflict, we will take appropriate measures to meet the threats we face.
As usual, Putin was very vague about where such a Russian response would consist. Worth noting is that this time he did not threaten Russia's nuclear weapons, something he has done several times before.
However, he has previously given orders that Russia's nuclear weapons doctrine be revised. Something that is interpreted in the West as his wanting to lower the threshold for using tactical nuclear weapons, weapons with less explosive power than "regular" nuclear weapons.
During Friday, the newly appointed British Prime Minister Keir Starmer visits the White House. At that meeting, he and Biden are expected to make decisions about the long-range weapons.
Leading British and American media believe there will be a compromise. Biden says yes to the British giving the go-ahead for Ukraine to use the robot "Storm Shadow" further into Russia. While the US is holding off on giving the green light for the same use of their ATACMS.
The decision could be decisive for the continuation of the war in several ways.
If Ukraine can strike Russian bases and supply routes deep inside Russia, it will be more difficult for Russia to attack targets inside Ukraine and supply the troops at the front.
That, in turn, could reduce Putin's appetite for continuing the war and increase the chances of peace negotiations where Ukraine has as strong a position as Russia.
But of course, a decision to lift the restrictions on Ukraine also entails a risk. What if Putin is serious about his threats this time?
The question, however, is what Putin can do. Attack a NATO country?
It would be an extreme risk-taking considering that the Russian army is busy in Ukraine and trying to retake the areas that Ukraine occupied inside Russia.
Using Tactical Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine?
The US has made it clear to Putin through direct contacts at a high level with the Kremlin that in that case Russia would have to pay a very high price. Putin's communication on the nuclear issue is deliberately unclear. But in December 2022, the Russian president stated that Russia would "under no circumstances" be the first to use nuclear weapons.
- We are not crazy, he said then.
The question is whether it also applies when the new nuclear doctrine is ready.
If the Western leaders would not give Ukraine the go-ahead to use NATO weapons in full, it is a signal that they are afraid of Putin. A message that strengthens Putin's perception that the threats are working.
The West does not want to unnecessarily escalate the war. But if Ukraine wants to be able to win the war, or at least not lose, then you have to give Zelenskyy the resources he needs to stop the Russian advance in eastern Ukraine.
My impression is that NATO wants to establish facts on the ground that will strengthen Ukraine's position in the event that Donald Trump were to win the presidential election in November.
It has become a rush.
Inga kommentarer:
Skicka en kommentar