A glimmer of hope in a crazy world

 

Nobel Peace Prize
A glimmer of hope in a crazy world

Wolfgang Hansson

This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.

Published 12.08

Quick version

• Military rearmament is taking place worldwide at record speed, and respect for international law is declining. This leads to devastation and heavy civilian casualties in conflicts such as in Ukraine and Gaza.
• The Nobel Committee has awarded the Peace Prize to Nihon Hidankyo, Japanese survivors of the atomic bombs, to promote awareness of the threat of nuclear weapons and the importance of upholding international norms.
• The decline of US global dominance has led to stronger manifestations of imperialist instincts in countries such as Russia and China, threatening the stability of the liberal world order and increasing tensions internationally.

If you take a step back and look at the world from the outside, it looks like it has gone mad.

Military rearmament is proceeding at record speed. Respect for the laws of war hits rock bottom.

Cities are laid in ruins. Thousands of people die every day in war. The threat of nuclear weapons is again very real.

Then it feels doubtful how much good a peace prize can do.

There was even speculation in advance that no prize would be awarded this year as a protest against the state of the world. It has happened before.

But by awarding the prize to Nihon Hidankyo, a group of Japanese survivors of the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945 who continue to bear witness to the weapons' horrific effects, the Nobel Committee succeeds in highlighting the importance of maintaining the taboo against using nuclear weapons. Which is not a matter of course in today's extremely high conflict level where respect for international norms is rapidly eroding.

Photo: Javad Parsa / NTB

The day before the peace prize was awarded, Israel attacked UN peacekeeping troops in southern Lebanon. They are there on a UN mandate following a decision by the UN Security Council.

That then with great courage shelling the headquarters of this force is one of the many proofs of how respect for international law and international rules has taken a frightening turn in recent years.

The UN is the only universally recognized institution the world has for international conflict resolution. If powerful and belligerent countries "piss" on the UN, what tools are there left to stop the world from descending into total chaos?

New red lines for communication between the countries of the world are crossed every day. The last few years have been perhaps the bleakest for peace since the Second World War.

It is connected with the fact that the unipolar world created after the fall of the Berlin Wall is about to collapse.
Don't have to obey

The US is no longer the world's overall superior superpower. You no longer have the same ambition or ability to take on the role of world police. At the same time, it is challenged by major powers such as Russia and China, which notice that the US has weakened after its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The superpower is busy resolving its internal political contradictions and avoiding the outbreak of a civil war.

It has awakened imperialist instincts in Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping.

China's Xi Jinping and Russia's Vladimir Putin at a meeting in Kazakhstan this summer. Photo: Pavel Volkov / AP

In the old world, Putin would never have dared to attack Ukraine. Now he knows that the American people do not want to embark on any new war adventures and took the chance.

The nuclear power Israel has also shown that it no longer needs to obey the US, even though the superpower is the one that ultimately guarantees Israel's security.

Instead of working for a ceasefire, Benjamin Netanyahu is contributing to a dangerous escalation with a possible direct confrontation with Iran on the cards. A country that is considered to be on the threshold of acquiring nuclear weapons.

When Iraq's dictator invaded its neighbor Kuwait completely unprovoked in 1991, the world came together in a grand coalition to throw Iraq out. Russian soldiers also participated. Today, such an international operation would seem completely unthinkable.

War costs money. Not since World War II has the world seen such a buildup as today. The dove of peace Sweden has doubled its defense spending since 2020 and there will be more.

Much is at stake

The rest of Europe, China and a number of countries are moving in the same direction.

But no one is increasing their military spending as fast as Russia.

Last year, the world spent an unimaginable 25 trillion kroner on weapons and defense. Actually, it's madness. Imagine if the world could solve its problems peacefully and instead inve

In the old world, Putin would never have dared to attack Ukraine. Now he knows that the American people do not want to embark on any new war adventures and took the chance.

The nuclear power Israel has also shown that it no longer needs to obey the US, even though the superpower is the one that ultimately guarantees Israel's security.

Instead of working for a ceasefire, Benjamin Netanyahu is contributing to a dangerous escalation with a possible direct confrontation with Iran on the cards. A country that is considered to be on the threshold of acquiring nuclear weapons.

When Iraq's dictator invaded its neighbor Kuwait completely unprovoked in 1991, the world came together in a grand coalition to throw Iraq out. Russian soldiers also participated. Today, such an international operation would seem completely unthinkable.

War costs money. Not since World War II has the world seen such a buildup as today. The dove of peace Sweden has doubled its defense spending since 2020 and there will be more.

Much is at stake

The rest of Europe, China and a number of countries are moving in the same direction.

But no one is increasing their military spending as fast as Russia.

Last year, the world spent an unimaginable 25 trillion kroner on weapons and defense. Actually, it's madness. Imagine if the world could solve its problems peacefully and instead invest jointly in solving the climate threat.

The Nobel Committee presents Photo: Javad Parsa / NTB

At the same time, there is much at stake. The West is fighting to preserve what remains of the liberal world order that is threatened by Russia but also China.

Xi Jinping constantly repeats that Taiwan must be incorporated into China if it is to be done by force. China's navy is behaving increasingly aggressively towards its neighbors in the South China Sea. China wants the entire area even though the International Court of Justice in The Hague ruled that China has no such right.

Even Xi Jinping can smell a weakened United States. Maybe in a few years he feels he can strike at Taiwan without the US or its allies having the ability to stop him.

China is greatly expanding its nuclear weapons capacity. Putin rattles off his weapons of mass destruction so often that this existential threat to humanity suddenly feels commonplace. The unthinkable is perhaps not so likely in the near term. But using nuclear weapons is no longer what it should be, completely unthinkable.

Terrible bloodshed

In addition to the financial cost comes the human cost.

Britain's Ministry of Defense says Russia is losing a thousand soldiers a day in its war of aggression against Ukraine. Although Ukraine's figure is lower, it is a terrible bloodshed and destruction we are seeing.

Residential buildings, schools and hospitals are constantly bombed in violation of international law. Like the electricity supply. Are there any of the laws of war that Russia has not violated?

In Gaza, over 40,000 people have been killed in the war Israel launched after the Hamas terrorist attack on October 7 last year. 11,000 of them are said to be children. Two-thirds of all buildings are destroyed or damaged. Now Israel continues with similar warfare in Lebanon. For Israel, the principle of proportionality does not seem to exist.

Yesterday, a UN report came out that accuses both Israel and Hamas of war crimes. Putin has been prosecuted at the International Court of Justice, ICC.

But will they ever be able to atone for their crimes?

The state of the world looks undeniably extremely bleak.

At its darkest, the award to Nihon Hidankyo at least gives a glimmer of hope that the madness can be cured.