Thought that kind of thing only happened in banana republics

American politics

Accused of coup d'état - yet Trump has a good chance of becoming president again 

Wolfgang Hansson  

This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.  

Updated 14:20 | Published at 2:18 p.m  

Columnists 

The United States may end up in a situation where a presidential candidate who is in practice accused of having attempted a coup d'état is still elected president once again. 

It sounds absolutely crazy. But despite the new indictment against Trump, his chances of once again moving into the White House are very good.

We've gotten used to ex-president Donald Trump pushing all boundaries. He had already broken records by becoming the first former president to be indicted. Not just once but twice.  

The third indictment that came today is undoubtedly the most serious to date. The indictment goes straight to the core of American democracy. 

Trump is charged with knowingly lying and other actions to have tried to change the election results in the 2020 presidential election. Trump knew he lost but tried to conspire in various ways to still hang on to power. In effect, turn the US into a dictatorship. 

If convicted, Trump could spend the rest of his life in prison.  

But that doesn't seem to be stopping Republican voters from being prepared to re-elect Trump for president in 2024. 

Admittedly, no new opinion polls have been conducted after the latest indictment, but the indictment was hardly a sensation. In a poll published in the New York Times earlier this week, the real estate billionaire is leading the Republican field vying for the party's nomination. Leading challenger Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is trailing by nearly 40 percentage points. Of the other contenders, no one gets more than three percent in support.

According to the survey, Trump has a large lead in all voter groups. Men and women, young and old, strongly conservative and moderate. He leads in the cities as well as in the countryside.  

There is no indication of reduced support  

Just over six months to go until the primary elections begin and a lot can happen. But at this point, there is no indication that the new indictment will reduce support among Republican voters. Especially not among Trump's core voters who support him no matter what he does.  

Trump was not exaggerating when he said before the 2016 presidential election, when he narrowly defeated Hillary Clinton, that he could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue in New York and shoot a person and voters would still vote for him.  

To me it appears completely bizarre that a person who is accused of extensive abuse of power on a number of counts can still be elected president. It's the kind of thing that normally only happens in banana republics or in authoritarian states where the elections are rigged from the start. 

But now we can see exactly the same thing in what has so far been one of the world's foremost democracies.  

When Trump fired his supporters to storm the Capitol to prevent Congress from approving the 2020 election results, the Democratic institutions were strong enough to prevent Trump's attempt to seize power. But what if the American voters send Trump back to the White House and give him the opportunity to once again try to weaken the country's democratic mechanisms?  

An opinion poll presented in the New York Times yesterday showed that Trump could give Joe Biden a tough match if they are pitted against each other in November next year. If there were an election today, both would get 43 percent of the vote. 

Donald Trump. Photo: Charlie Riedel/AP 

Trying to procrastinate 

The hope of those horrified by Trump has been that the combined force of multiple impeachments would make it impossible for Trump to garner enough support among voters. Three charges have been brought against Trump. A fourth awaits shortly. It is the state of Georgia that is likely to prosecute Trump for fraudulently attempting to overturn the state's 2020 election results. The primary evidence is the tape recording when Trump requests that the state's election officials "find" enough votes to give Trump the victory.  

But if today's heavy indictment for conspiring against America's democracy is not enough to disqualify Trump, then another indictment from Georgia is unlikely to make much of a difference.  

At the same time, it must be remembered that in the presidential election it is not enough for Trump to lean on the Republican electorate. He must win over voters from the Democrats and from the group of independents to emerge victorious from the battle.  

A lot can depend on whether any of the trials against Trump get started when the primaries start in February next year. We can be sure that Trump will do everything to delay the legal processes in the hope that if he is re-elected president, he will stop the legal processes or even pardon himself.

Not disqualified  

The charges alone are not enough to disqualify Trump from running, likely not even a conviction. It risks becoming an extremely messy election campaign if Trump, while being the Republican candidate, is embroiled in lawsuits that could give him a long prison sentence. 

All those who thought it was chaotic during Trump's four years in the White House should probably prepare for the upcoming election campaign to be even worse.  

Coincidentally, yesterday SVT broadcast a documentary about former president Richard Nixon's involvement in the Watergate scandal in 1972. At that time, the Republican Party put the good of the country ahead of the party and made it clear to Nixon that if he did not resign voluntarily, he would be impeached. Today's leading Republicans are prepared to support a suspected criminal if it can help them to power.