Must warn: 3 parallel crises

 

Must: The risks to Swedish security have increased 

 

Niclas Vent  

 

Updated 17.03 | Published 12.37 

 

The risks to Swedish security have increased, according to Must, the military intelligence and security service.  

 

Three parallel crises in the outside world and a Russia that is preparing the entire society for war constitute a long-term threat.  

 

- We have no respite, we have to act here and now, says Must manager Thomas Nilsson.  

 

In its new annual report for 2023, Must points out a series of parallel crises that negatively affect Sweden's security:  

 

The battles in the Middle East, the conflicts in the Sahel area in Africa and of course the biggest threat – Russia's continued war of aggression against Ukraine.  

 

The war in Ukraine will continue during the year, there is a risk that the war will escalate further and Russia will try to increase its military strength as soon as possible, Must assesses. 

 

- Even if Russia's war in Ukraine were to be stopped, the root causes of the conflict remain in the Russian leadership's view of Ukraine and the West, says Must boss Thomas Nilsson. 

 

- Even we in Sweden have to plan to have a risk-prone and aggressive Russia as a neighbor for a long time to come. Russia will strengthen its military capability in our neighborhood. 

 

The Russian rearmament has problems both with a lack of components and that the war in Ukraine is draining resources. But the Russian regime gives a high priority to rearmament, according to Must.  

 

- In this situation, it would be a mistake to believe that a temporary limitation in the Russian ability in our region gives us a respite. Russia's ability to carry out a military attack against Sweden continues to be a dimensioning threat to the armed forces. And even as a NATO member, Sweden must be able to face an antagonistic and unpredictable Russia. 

 

In the short term, the threat of war is not imminent, according to Thomas Nilsson.  

 

If Russia is to carry out any type of armed attack against a NATO country within three years, things must happen in a number of areas first. How unity in the West holds up, how defense investments fall out and what happens in the rest of the world are three influencing factors. 

 

- That is not the situation I see in front of me now, says Thomas Nilsson.   

 

At the same time, there are risks of developments that quickly worsen the situation further:  

• An election of Donald Trump as president could mean that US support for both Europe and Ukraine decreases. 
• China may start supporting Russia more intensively.
• The Russians themselves may mobilize further. 

These are risks Sweden must manage, according to the Must manager.  

 

- We must have them in sight. We must be aware of it. This is what I usually underline: We have to relate to this security situation in which we live. It's like it's impossible to forget anything.  

 

- We have no choice but to deal with it and act on it.  

 

Thomas Nilsson answers evasively when asked if the worsening security situation requires additional measures from the Riksdag and the government to meet.  

 

- I think the threat picture is serious and there is a discussion regarding the level of defense funding in many countries. NATO has set a goal of two percent, which Sweden will reach when we become members. Then, of course, there is a discussion: Is it enough? I think that not least the work of the Defense Committee will have to look at what the assessment is, says Thomas Nilsson. 

 

The terrorist threat against Sweden has also become more serious during the year, as Sweden has gone from "a legitimate to a designated target for violent Islamist groups", according to Must.  

 

Must manager Thomas Nilsson. Photo: Pontus Lundahl/TT / TT News Agency

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