South China Sea
China's dangerous game - this is how it escalates
Wolfgang Hansson
This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.
Published 2024-08-27 20.13
How far is China prepared to go to subjugate the entire South China Sea?
In just a few weeks, a number of violent confrontations have occurred between China and the Philippines.
An escalation that raises fears of increased tension between China and the United States.
Quick version
Skirmishes between Chinese coast guard and warships and the Philippine coast guard rarely make top news sites. Although they should.
The area is very likely the scene of the next major confrontation between the US and China,
During the summer, there have been physical confrontations on a number of occasions. The situation has become particularly serious in recent weeks as the Philippines accused China of deliberately ramming Philippine Coast Guard boats delivering food, medicine and supplies to Filipino sailors and military personnel on reefs located within the country's offshore EEZ. China claims the area as theirs.
"More physical"
So far, no one has been killed in the increasingly violent confrontations.
- The recent incidents have been much more physical than before, says Harrison Petat, researcher at the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative to the UK's The Guardian.
It is a dangerous game that China is playing.
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has said that if any Filipino soldiers or fishermen are killed in the confrontations, it would be "very, very close to what we would define as an act of war."
The Philippines has a security agreement with the United States, which means that the superpower must defend the country in the event of an armed attack in, for example, the South China Sea.
Issued warning
A week ago, the Biden administration issued an indirect warning to China pointing out the existence of the agreement and the fact that the United States has an obligation to intervene.
So far, the incidents have not reached the level when the Philippines chose to trigger the agreement, but if China continues to escalate its aggression in the area, there is a risk that the United States will feel compelled to intervene.
Basically, it is a territorial conflict. But it has evolved into something bigger where China is trying to establish itself as a superpower equal to the US.
The row with the Philippines intensified after Ferdinand Marcos Jr., son of the old dictator of the same name, was elected president in 2022. Former President Duterte was more evasive toward China. Marcos has both re-established good relations with the US and signaled that the Philippines intends to stand up for itself in the territorial dispute with China.
But already in 1999, the Philippines deliberately allowed a ship to run aground at the Andra Tomas Shoal reef to mark its territory. The ship, Sierra Madre, has since housed the Philippine military. It is when personnel are to be rotated and resupplied that China is increasingly aggressively trying to prevent this.
FACTS
Beijing believes that 90 percent of the South China Sea, or the South China Sea as it is also known, historically belongs to China. This is despite the fact that five other countries the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan also have territorial claims.
The seabed has rich finds of oil and gas. This is also where one of the world's most important trade routes goes to sea.
Eight years have passed since the International Court of Arbitration in The Hague, ICC, ruled that China's claims to almost the entire area are not inconsistent with international law and that it has encroached on Philippine territory.
China rejected the ruling and has since completely ignored the ruling. Instead, military bases have been built on strategic islands far out at sea that are claimed by several countries.
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