Will there still be a major war? The answer that will be decisive

Israel
The threat of a major war not removed

Wolfgang Hansson

This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.

Updated 21.29 | Published 21.15

The question is whether this was Hizbullah's revenge or whether it comes more from the terror-labelled group or their financier Iran.

As long as we do not have that answer, the risk of a major war in the region remains.

Much depends on whether there will be a ceasefire in Gaza or not.

Quick version

• Hezbollah has fired over 300 rockets at military bases in Israel, despite resistance from the Israeli Air Defense Irondome.
• The attack is seen as revenge for the assassination of their commander, but the risk of major war between Israel and Iran/Hezbollah is increasing.
• Ceasefire negotiations in Gaza are uncertain, and both Hezbollah and Iran are expected to continue attacks; Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is playing a risky political game.
•  Hizbollah and Iran's revenge for the assassination of their commander Fouad Shukr and of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniya has taken longer than many thought.

Certainly there were those who hoped that they would wait until the negotiations going on in Cairo for a cease-fire in Gaza are concluded.

Now Hezbollah is trying to make the more than 300 rockets it sent against military bases in Israel appear as a great success even though most of them were shot down by the Irondome, the Israeli air defense.

Israel also claims that it had advance knowledge that the rockets were loaded and therefore launched a series of pre-emptive strikes in southern Lebanon shortly before Hezbollah fired its rockets. Something Hezbollah denies and calls the attack "a total success".

That way, both sides can claim some kind of victory and put aside the latest attack.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah helped fuel the airwaves by clarifying in a speech that the group does not at this stage intend to attack civilian areas in Israel. Such an attack would violate one of Benjamin Netanyahu's red lines and lead to an escalation.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah says this was only the first stage of revenge against Israel. In other words, there may be more to come. If it comes in the form of more rocket attacks or in other ways, the outside world will simply have to wait and see.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.

Hamas's greatest wish

Hezbollah obviously wants to continue forcing the Israelis to fear new attacks.

It also remains to be seen what Iran intends to do. They have also said that they intend to avenge the assassination of Haniya in Tehran just under a month ago.

The experts usually say that neither party has any interest in a major war in the Middle East. That is only partly true.

Hamas's greatest desire is to draw both Iran and Hezbollah into a war against Israel. The longer Hamas can hold out in Gaza without Israel being able to claim the "total victory" that Netanyahu promised, the greater their chance of surviving the war and continuing to have a role in the Palestinian resistance.

One also has to ask what the Prime Minister of Israel really wants. Netanyahu has time and again sabotaged talks on a ceasefire by actions that disrupted the peace talks.

Netanyahu may not want a major war but he definitely wants to keep the tension alive so he can continue the war in Gaza as long as possible. As long as the war is going on, his own position of power is not threatened. As soon as it ends, there will be demands for his resignation.

It is a very dangerous game that Netanyahu and Iran are playing. Through the spiral of attacks and revenge attacks, they constantly risk the situation escalating out of control.

Depending on what Iran does, Israel may find itself forced to respond.

 

Hamas leader Ismail Haniya was killed in late July.

1 / 2Photo: Vahid Salemi / AP

Want to stay alive in the war

A restraining factor is that Israel's main ally, the United States, absolutely does not want the Gaza war to develop into a major regional war. Especially not with just over two months left until the presidential election, which can be so decisive for the outside world as well.

But Netanyahu doesn't seem to care much about Biden and Harris' objections. He feels certain that no American president would dare to cut off arms support to the United States.

Much suggests that he is right.

Israel says it still intends to send a delegation to the ceasefire talks, which continue in Cairo on Monday. As long as talks are ongoing, the hope of a truce is alive, even if it is not very strong.

Netanyahu seems more interested in keeping the war alive than rescuing the hostages who are still alive. Hamas also knows that the moment all the hostages have been released, the group risks Israel intensifying its pursuit of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.

Unfortunately, there is more evidence for further escalation and expansion of the conflict than for a quick ceasef

 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Photo: AP