Expert: Depleting weapons stockpiles could slow down the war

Jonas Cullberg/TT

Published 05.30

 

The Thaad missile system is displayed outside the White House. Archive photo. Photo: Alex Brandon/AP/TT

The war in Iran means that the US stockpiles of important offensive and defensive missiles are running low.

– If the US does not want to end the war, which it does not seem to want to, then it will be much less intense, says Johan Granholm at the Swedish National Defense University.

Since the war began just over five months ago, the US military has used up almost 80 percent of its so-called Thaad missiles, which are important for stopping attacks with ballistic missiles. This is according to sources to CNN with insight into the stocks.

In addition, the US is estimated to have used up about two-thirds of its Patriot air defense missiles during the same period, according to a report from the think tank Center for Strategic & International Studies, CSIS.

– The US has used up three years of production of the missiles in a short time, says Johan Granholm, a teacher at the Swedish National Defence University.

During the war, these have been used to defend US bases and ships in the Middle East, as well as US allies in the region against Iranian attacks.

Major risks

It is not only defensive missiles that are running out of stock. Two important offensive missiles are also running out as the war drags on. The US has basically used up all the missiles from the Atacms and PRSM systems, Reuters reported on Tuesday.

– If the US does not want to end the war, which it does not seem to want to, it will be much less intense, says Johan Granholm.

– The alternative is to use manned combat aircraft much closer to the front and at shorter distances, and then you expose a large part of your air force, both people and machines, to great risks.

Concerns among allies

Several of the US's allies around the Persian Gulf depend on American air defense systems. They have expressed concern that the shrinking stocks risk weakening their ability to withstand Iranian retaliatory attacks if President Donald Trump decides to escalate the war, according to CNN.

The lack of air defense missiles has been pointed out as one of the reasons why Trump chose not to launch massive bombings of Iran last weekend.

American arms companies have been urged to increase production of missiles, but it is a slow process.

- It takes two to five years to build an advanced missile, says Johan Granholm.

- The manufacturers have a couple of hundred subcontractors who make very specialized parts that will be included in the missile. This means that you have to increase the production rate at several hundred different factories, which is difficult.