A Ukrainian firefighter at the crash site of a Russian missile after the night’s attacks and Joakim Paasikivi, a military expert. Montage. Photo: Efrem Lukatsky/AP/TT and Jessica Gow/TT
During the night’s major attack on Kiev, Ukraine failed to repel a single Russian missile, according to preliminary data from the country’s air defense.
– This is neither surprising nor good, says military expert Joakim Paasikivi.
At least 17 people were killed in the Russian attacks on Kiev and the Kiev region during the night, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj. 98 out of 115 Russian drones were repelled, Ukraine’s air defense writes in a report. In addition, Russia sent four cruise missiles and 24 ballistic missiles towards Ukraine, according to the report, which does not mention anything about these having been repelled.
This could be a sign that Ukrainian missile stocks have reached a critically low level. But it cannot be ruled out that Ukraine is deliberately withholding information to further reinforce the message that the outside world needs to send more air defense, according to Lieutenant Colonel Johan Huovinen.
“It could also be that a missile has been fired but has not hit,” he says.
At the same time, there are increasing reports that the US missile stocks are starting to run out. On Tuesday, Reuters reported that ammunition for the two American missile systems Atacms and PRSM is basically exhausted. The missiles are used for precision-guided attacks and have been used extensively by both the US in the Iran war and by Ukraine in the war against Russia.
Difficult to make breakthroughs
The front area is still dominated by drones and it is difficult for both sides to make any major breakthroughs. In that situation, Russia sees it as easier to achieve success by firing missiles at Ukrainian cities, according to Joakim Paasikivi, geopolitical advisor at Mannheimer Swartling.
How large the stockpiles of ballistic missiles are on the Russian side is difficult to assess, he says.
– The information I have seen and which I think seems reasonable is that there are no large stocks but rather a fairly extensive production, says Paasikivi.
He is referring to Ukrainian information that Russia produces between 60 and 70 missiles a month.
At the same time, Ukraine's military intelligence service states that Russia is expected to receive an additional 120 ballistic missiles from North Korea shortly, writes Reuters.
License for air defense missile
During the NATO summit in Turkey earlier this summer, Trump announced that Ukraine would receive a license to manufacture the Patriot air defense missile. However, the president seemed to back down from that promise at a cabinet meeting last week, where he said that the issue is being discussed but that it is "difficult to give away that type of technology".
Future license production of Patriot missiles would not solve Ukraine's problems in the short term, however.
“It is a difficult situation for Ukraine,” says Paasikivi.
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