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Azerbaijan goes to rigged elections: "The democracy movement is being suffocated"
Noam Bertling
Updated 20.41 | Published 20.20
Today, Azerbaijan goes to presidential elections.
There are many indications that the current president will win. In several polling station surveys, Ilham Aliyev gets over 90 percent.
- The election is rigged, says Hugo von Essen, analyst at the Center for Eastern European Studies.
President Ilham Aliyev. Photo: AP
The country's president, Ilham Aliyev, has ruled Azerbaijan with an iron fist since 2003, when he took over from his father. And more recently, he has tightened his grip on the country.
In the last year alone, the number of political prisoners has tripled to 300. Among them are journalists, religious leaders and social debaters. It has also been made more difficult for new parties to register.
In the fall of 2023, Azerbaijan invaded Nagorno-Karabakh in neighboring Armenia. Hundreds of thousands of people were forced to flee in what experts called an ethnic cleansing.
Today, Azerbaijan is in a complicated, but strong position, according to Hugo von Essen.
- If this policy and aggression against Armenia continues, it will have a negative impact on the relationship with the EU and the West, says Hugo von Essen.
Due to EU sanctions against Russia and the uncertainty of the Suez Canal, Azerbaijan has become an important corridor for trade between the West and the East.
Ethnic Armenians fleeing Nagorno-Karabakh. Photo: Vasily Krestyaninov / AP
Important to isolate Russia
Many of the member states that previously traded with Russia, but now stopped due to sanctions, now trade with Azerbaijan and the countries in the immediate area instead.
This has led to a difficult balancing act for the Union.
- There is now a strong need for a good relationship with Azerbaijan. At the same time, they want to see peace, democracy and stability in the region, says Hugo von Essen.
The country is also important in the EU's attempt to isolate Russia.
Hugo von Essen is an analyst at the Center for Eastern European Studies Photo: Foreign Policy Institute
- It is important for the EU to fight Russia. In order to isolate Russia, the EU needs to cooperate with these countries, says Hugo von Essen.
The EU has condemned the country's conflict with Armenia. But for the regime it is important that it continues. The military conquest of Nagorno-Karabakh legitimized the regime for the people.
- The "win" has been extremely popular for Aliyev and a way to strengthen his politics in the country. This suggests that Azerbaijan would have a more aggressive approach, says Hugo von Essen.
Rasmus Canbäck has covered Azerbaijan for several years. Photo: Areg Balayan
"Every democratic movement is getting smaller and smaller"
Rasmus Canbäck, journalist at Blankspot, agrees that it strengthened Aliyev domestically.
- There is a lot of support for him, but it is difficult to put your finger on how genuine it is.
He has covered Azerbaijan for several years and is the author of a book about the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh. He believes that the prospects for a more democratic Azerbaijan are small.
- The democratic rights exist on paper, but do not exist in practice, says Rasmus Canbäck.
- Every democratic movement is getting smaller and smaller, and the one that exists today is being completely suffocated.
But there won't be any mass protests. The only alternatives to Aliyev's party are even more radical. One of them, nationalist Musavat, wants the country to have a physical land border with Turkey.
- The protests arise when the people see another alternative. But there isn't, he says.
But even if it becomes more difficult for the democratic movements to exist, Rasmus Canbäck does not believe that they will disappear completely.
- The people who stay, despite being persecuted, are very brave. There are also those who are not allowed to leave the country because of their commitment. Somehow they survive.
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