Points out Trump as the culprit behind the crisis

Trump declared victory but it was Xi who pulled the longest straw

Wolfgang Hansson

This is a commentary text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.

Published 21.40

 

Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping during the summit. Photo: Mark Schiefelbein/AP

Although President Donald Trump declares victory after the summit with China's Xi Jinping, it appears rather that Xi has pulled the longest straw.

China can still use the rare earth metals as a bargaining chip against the United States.

The big question now is what Trump meant by his worrying statement that the United States will resume nuclear weapons tests.
Quick version

• The United States and China have entered into a temporary truce in the trade war, with the United States lowering tariffs and China promising to continue exporting rare earth metals and resume importing soybeans from the United States.
• China has a strong bargaining chip in the rare earth metals on which the US depends, which gives China the upper hand in future negotiations.
• Donald Trump's statement about resuming nuclear weapons tests is worrying, as such tests have not been carried out by the major nuclear powers since the 1990s and could lead to an arms race.

On one level, the world can temporarily breathe a sigh of relief. The trade war between the US and China is about to be de-escalated. A temporary ceasefire has been agreed.

The US is lowering trade tariffs against China in exchange for a promise that China will continue to export the important rare earth metals to the US without restrictions for at least a year. China is also promising to resume imports of soybeans from the US.

But there is no doubt that it is China that will have the strongest bargaining chip in the future. China has something that the US and the rest of the world are completely dependent on. The rare earth metals are used in all electronics produced in the West. They are essential in car manufacturing and the development of wind and solar energy.

After Trump aggressively pushed for increased tariffs against China, he threw in the towel during the summit in South Korea. There will be no 100 percent tariffs. Instead, tariffs will be reduced to 47 percent.

It was almost comical to see how much Trump was keen to emphasize the incredibly good personal relationship he has with Xi at the same time as Trump has made constant threats against China.

Trump patted Xi on the back while China's leader remained relatively neutral to Trump's honorifics.

 

The world leaders met in Busan, South Korea. Photo: Mark Schiefelbein/AP

He also gave Trump lesson by saying that the two countries should focus on having a good relationship in the long term instead of falling into a pattern of constant retaliation.

A clear pass to Trump that it is his way of conducting politics that led to a serious crisis between the two countries in the first place.

In many ways, we are now back to square one, the situation that prevailed before Trump shocked the tariffs against China and China responded with the same coin.

Trump gambled big but his gamble did not pay off. China can import its soybeans from other countries. The United States, like no other Western country, has any alternative to China when it comes to importing the vital rare earth metals.

It is not just about the metals per se but mainly about the fact that China is one of the few countries that is prepared to produce them despite severe environmental problems.

Sweden is one of the few countries in the West that can break the Chinese monopoly. The so-called Per Geijer deposit in Kiruna can help Europe break its dependence on China. But it is about extracting the rare earth metals in processes that meet strong environmental requirements. Something China does not need to worry about in the same way.

Therefore, it will take time before any production can start in Sweden.

Trump was, as usual, not slow to declare victory after the meeting with Xi, even though all he really did was create a crisis that did not exist and then claim that he solved it.

– On a ten-point scale where ten is the best, I would say this was a twelve, Trump said before boarding the plane home.

He can certainly boast that the tariffs against China are now higher than when he started the tariff war, but in many ways it is the American consumers who have to pay for them. So the question is whether voters see it as a victory.

Just an hour before the meeting with Xi, Trump made a worrying but also strange statement when he announced that the United States was resuming its nuclear weapons tests. He justified this by saying that other countries had begun testing nuclear weapons.

At best, Trump has misunderstood things.

Russia recently tested a new missile capable of carrying nuclear weapons. North Korea's Kim Jong-un conducted a missile test shortly before President Trump arrived in South Korea to meet with Xi Jinping. But none of these countries have recently conducted any nuclear weapons tests. North Korea conducted its most recent test in 2017.

 

The US president boards Air Force One in Busan. Photo: Mark Schiefelbein/AP

If Trump is serious about his statement, it is a very dangerous development. Then the world could be heading towards a race to develop new nuclear weapons, increasing the risk that these terrible weapons will one day be used.

Neither the US, Russia nor China have conducted any test explosions since the early 1990s. There is also a test ban treaty from 1996 that all three major powers signed, which prohibits test explosions.

Today, the US, China and Russia instead use computer-simulated tests to develop their nuclear weapons.

Starting test explosions again would be an enormous step backwards for the ambitions of getting the great powers to disarm in the nuclear weapons area.

Trump gave no details except that he had given the Pentagon the order to start immediately.

Only when we learn more will it be possible to assess the seriousness of the US president's statement.