Will we have another “year without winter”?
Jonathan Jeppsson
Dig manager and climate columnist
This is a commentary text. . Analysis and positions are those of the writer.
Updated 21.44 | Published 21.14
El Niño is characterized by warming of the sea surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and has consequences for weather systems across the planet.
Many have probably heard of the “year without summer”, which is the popular name for the events of 1816, when Mount Tambora in Indonesia erupted explosively. The enormous amounts of volcanic ash blocked sunlight from the Earth’s surface, causing crop failures, epidemics, famine and floods in Europe and North America. Mary Shelley was so inspired by the misery that she wrote “Frankenstein’s Monster” that summer.
Its opposite is not as well known – “the year without winter” 1877. But that is the year we should look to if we want something to compare it to for what is to happen in the fall.
A different kind of monster is on its way.
The latest reports are increasingly pointing in one direction – the El Niño that begins in the fall could be powerful, possibly the strongest ever observed. The vertical y-axis has not been enough in the forecasts, only now in recent days has it been extended, to the horrified delight of some researchers.
It could therefore rival – or even surpass – the legendary El Niño of 1877, which brought widespread drought, failed monsoon rains and global food crises in Asia, Africa and South America.
From 1875 to 1878, 50 million people died in a prolonged famine. Although El Niño created the drought, it was the political systems that caused the famine – for example, the British colonial empire continued to drain India of grain, even though the monsoon had failed and people were starving.
But a lot has happened since 1877, before even Edison had time to invent the light bulb. Today, we have global trade that can even out regional inequalities, we have aid, central banks and stronger social safety nets. Some 50 million deaths are hardly relevant.
At the same time, the risk of major disruptions cannot be ignored.
What is feared is that several large agricultural regions will have problems at the same time. Reduced supply leads to price increases, and historically this has been seen after strong El Niño periods.
It will hit poor countries hardest, but it can have knock-on effects with panic in certain markets and political unrest as a result.
Just a drop of a few percent for the major crops corn, wheat, rice and soybeans is enough to cause significant price shocks.
If this is combined with the effects of the conflicts in the Middle East, the consequences could be even worse.
Based on temperature data from five different research groups, the respected climate website Carbon Brief predicts that 2026 will likely be the second warmest year on record.
Professor James Hansen, known as the “godfather of climate change”, is raising the stakes and believes that 2026 will likely be the warmest year on record.
And this is just the beginning, we are in the very early stages of the impact of climate change on human civilization – especially as long as emissions are at record highs.
The y-axes will need to be extended more times in the future.
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