An end to the war decides everything - could give Harris the victory

 

Kamala Harris
Ceasefire in Gaza crucial to Kamala Harris' chance of election victory

Wolfgang Hansson

This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.

Updated 21.03 | Published 20.10

A ceasefire in Gaza is important not only for the Palestinians who live in a daily hell of hunger and bombs.

For Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris, an end to the war in the Middle East is crucial to her chances of winning the election.

A truce would give her a real push in the right direction.

As the Democrats begin their party convention in Chicago, it's all about getting a unanimous chorus of praise for Kamala Harris.

At the beginning of the summer, she had a weak position within the party. After Joe Biden's resignation, she is now presented as America's salvation.

The improbable transformation must be manifested for three days in Chicago to create the right election fever around the own candidate.

But reality keeps intruding. Extensive demonstrations are expected outside the convention demanding an end to Israel's bombing of Gaza  and US arms sales to Israel.

Photo: Brynn Anderson/AP

Joe Biden's strong support for Israel has been one reason why he has lost support within the left wing of the party and among voters with a Middle Eastern background.

For Kamala Harris, it is important to take a more neutral stance if she is to succeed in winning back those voters. She must balance America's strong traditional support for Israel with showing sympathy and support for the Palestinian cause.

Harris has so far not presented any foreign policy agenda of his own. She gives the impression of being a little more pro-Palestinian than Joe Biden. But now she is forced to give clear statements about how she views the Gaza war and other major foreign policy issues.

For Kamala Harris, it is of the utmost importance that the war in Gaza comes to an end. A truce would greatly increase her chances of being elected.

Palestinians evacuate a refugee camp in Gaza on April 17. Photo: Abdel Kareem Hana / AP

Iran's Revenge

A truce reduces the risk of Iran and Hezbollah taking violent revenge on Israel for the assassination of, among others, Hamas leader Ismail Haniya in Tehran a few weeks ago. Which in turn reduces the risk of the Gaza war growing into a major regional conflict where the US can be drawn in more directly.

With a truce, Harris would escape the active opposition of left-wing Democrats while denying her opponent Donald Trump  the opportunity to use the war as a bat against her.

Trump often boasts that he has never started a war and tries to present himself as the only one who can ensure that the United States is not drawn into any new military adventures.

Joe Biden has long tried to bring about a truce but has not succeeded in putting enough pressure on the parties, above all Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has several times openly defied him, even though Biden at one point went so far as to withhold an arms delivery to Israel.

Every time a truce has looked imminent, Netanyahu has sabotaged the attempts with his actions and statements.

The negotiations have been going on for months but are now said to be at a decisive stage.

Joe Biden is, for I don't know what time in the series, optimistic. We are almost there, says the American president.

If you listen to Hamas, his hopes seem exaggerated.

Trump often boasts that he has never started a war. Photo: Carolyn Kaster/AP

Incompatible requirements

But in negotiations like this, the important thing happens in the hidden. Without transparency, it is impossible to know how close or how far a solution is.

The big problem is that the demands of both sides are completely incompatible.

Israel wants to crush Hamas forever, which the terror-labelled group is, for obvious reasons, not interested in.

For Israel, it is important to maintain a military presence in Gaza and the ability to strike again militarily if Hamas again directs attacks against Israel.

While it would be a great success for Netanyahu to free those hostages held by Hamas who are still alive, he risks losing power the day the war ends. This personal conflict of interest has been an important factor in why the ceasefire negotiations have been going on for so long without success.

But it is clear that both Biden and Harris are now trying harder to twist Netanyahu's arm to get him to agree to a truce.

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken believes that the ongoing negotiations may be the last chance to reach an agreement on a ceasefire. If the talks fail, the risk of a major war in the region increases markedly, where the US will most likely side with Israel.

Such a war is the last thing Harris wants as a boost for the upcoming election campaign.