The new infection gives off unpleasant vibes from the covid pandemic
Wolfgang Hansson
This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.
Published 2024-08-16 20.24
The news about the new mpox virus gives off unpleasant vibes from the corona pandemic.
The same calm assurances in the introduction that the spread of infection should probably be stopped.
But just as many questions that don't seem to have an answer yet.
It feels a little scary.
Quick version
At the same time, a lot is recognizable.
For example, the rapid spread of infection. The WHO had barely declared a global emergency for the infection in Africa before the first case was discovered in Sweden. Then one can assume that relatively soon cases will appear in other European countries.
But we simply do not know how much the infection has already spread.
It is underlined by the fact that during the day the European Infection Control Authority, ECDC, raised the risk level for the virus in Europe from low to moderate.
The experts are as diffuse as during covid when it comes to how it spreads. How close body contact must be. Is it enough to stand close to someone on the bus or subway?
There are still no really clear announcements.
The infection prevention experts of course want to avoid panic and try to reassure the population, but how sure are they really of their cause?
State epidemiologist Magnus Gisslén admits that there is still very little research into how the virus spreads and infects.
The previous mpox variant was spread almost exclusively via sexual contact, preferably between men. The new variant seems to spread more easily and in other ways.
Breeding ground for infection
The greatest spread of infection occurs in Africa, where health care is extremely poorly developed in many places. The risk is great that the infection will spread without the healthcare in countries such as Congo, Burundi and its neighbors having full control.
Congo is a country at war where many people live close together in refugee camps. A perfect breeding ground for the spread of infection.
Many probably remember the Ebola outbreak in West Africa in 2014. In eight months, the deadly virus had spread to three continents. Panic was near. Fortunately, the cases discovered outside Africa were managed to be isolated.
But the virus claimed over 10,000 lives in Africa and had a major impact on society in countries such as Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea.
Not until 2016 did the WHO declare that the danger of an international spread of the virus was over.
Of course Mpox does not need to develop into something similar or a new pandemic. But the fact that the WHO is issuing its warning shows the seriousness.
Hopefully the experts are right when they point to many differences compared to covid-19.
Not least, there is a vaccine that hopefully works.
Lack of vaccine
The problem is that there isn't enough of it right now. Africa has requested 10 million doses. The EU has promised to donate 250,000. It is unclear how quickly vaccines can be mass-produced if the whole thing develops into a more extensive epidemic.
Another unpleasant circumstance is that the disease seems to hit young people particularly hard. Covid mainly affected the elderly and fragile. Tragic, too, but many who died of covid had probably died six months or a year later. The new variant of mpox kills people who have their whole lives ahead of them.
I remember when the swine flu ravaged the world in 2009. Even then, it was young children and young people who were most vulnerable. People fought tooth and nail to get their children vaccinated.
Five million Swedes were vaccinated in what was then the largest mass vaccination in the country's history.
The positive this time is that society is more prepared for a new epidemic. We all have the experience of the covid pandemic in our spine and are prepared to act quickly by keeping our distance, working from home and so on if it will be required.
The difficult thing will be to prevent the spread of infection from Africa to Europe and other parts of the world. During the covid pandemic, it was basically impossible to travel around the world. Nowadays, we are back to almost the same travel habits that prevailed before covid. There are daily flights from Africa to major cities across the globe.
Which of course makes it even more difficult to stop the spread of infection.
China which more or less shut down completely during covid has already said it will screen travelers to the country for mpox.
So while there is no reason to panic about mpox, be vigilant. At best, it is possible to nip the spread of the new virus variant in the bud. In the worst case, we have to prepare for a new round of keeping our distance and working from home.
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