Sitting in Putin's lap - can change Europe

 

Austria
Far-right successes a threat to Ukraine

Wolfgang Hansson

This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.

Published 21.02

Quick version

• The far-right FPÖ party has become the largest party in Austria according to polls, but its chances of forming a government are slim as other parties refuse to cooperate under leader Herbert Kickl.
• The FPÖ's success reflects a wider trend of right-wing extremism in Europe, particularly with hard-line stances against asylum immigration and a desire to dismantle the EU's asylum policy.
• The FPÖ's pro-Russian stance and resistance to supporting Ukraine may threaten the unity within the EU on aid and sanctions, which risks undermining support for Ukraine if the trend continues.

The extreme right becomes the largest party in yet another country in Europe.

Their successes risk destroying the agreement on support for Ukraine.

Then it is a small consolation that the Austrian FPÖ will probably not be allowed to form a government despite the election victory.

There is still some form of decency limit when it comes to cooperation with far-right parties.

So despite the fact that the FPÖ, with its 29 percent according to polling station polls, will for the first time become the largest party in a parliamentary election, there is little chance that they will be able to form the government.

Extreme Russian friendliness

The Christian Democrats, ÖVP, who become second largest, refuse to cooperate with FPÖ if party leader Herbert Kickl demands to be prime minister.

Herbert Kickl. Photo: Heinz-Peter Bader / AP

The reason is that even the conservative ÖVP believes that he is too extreme in his Russian friendliness and in his hatred of immigrants.

So the only chance for the FPÖ to gain power is if Kickl steps aside and hands over the prime ministership to someone else.

That's exactly what happened in the Netherlands when Geert Wilder's Freedom Party won the election at the end of last year. After months of probing, Wilders realized that no one was prepared to be part of a government in which he was prime minister. Sensationally, he swallowed personal pride and agreed to step aside so that his party would still gain government power.

Whether Kickl is as selfless remains to be seen. Must believe it.

 

The FPÖ looks set to be the largest in the Austrian election. Photo: Andreea Alexandru/AP

So once again we may have a situation where we have a winner in an election in Europe but where someone else still gets the power of government. How good is it for trust in democracy?

Recently, a left-wing coalition won the elections in France, but President Macron gave the task of becoming prime minister to a right-wing man, Michel Barnier.

Excluded

German right-wing extremists Alternative for Germany recently won the state elections in Thuringia. But they seem to be barred from the possibility of governing.

Now there are many indications that the same fate will befall the FPÖ.

But the fact that they are excluded from government power cannot hide the fact that the extreme right is on the rise in Europe.

 

Anti-Nazi demonstrations on election day. Photo: Andreea Alexandru / AP

The winner of the election above all changes is the immigration policy. The FPÖ stands for a rock-hard line where Austria's borders should in principle be closed to asylum immigration. At the same time, they want to deport everyone who has had their asylum application rejected or who has not managed to integrate.

FPÖ wants to tear up the asylum pact that the EU has just adopted and further tighten the rules.

The chance that they will succeed is small at the moment, but the FPÖ contributes to undermining respect for the asylum system that was adopted after the Second World War.

 

Viktor Orban and Putin in July this year. Photo: Alexander Zemlianichenko / AP

Given the success of far-right parties around Europe, it is difficult to see how this asylum system will survive in the long run. It is probably only a matter of time before the rules are eroded even more.

But perhaps even more important for the maintenance of the liberal world order is that the FPÖ sits on Vladimir Putin's lap. Alongside Viktor Orban's Hungary, it is difficult to find a more pro-Russian party in Europe.

FPÖ wants to continue importing cheap gas from Russia. They oppose the harsh sanctions against the Kremlin and want to put an end to arms aid to Ukraine.

Ukrainian soldiers. Photo: Libkos / AP

Revolutionary changes

As long as you do not get government power, none of these views will have much impact in Austria, but it shows that the strong support for Ukraine around Europe is about to crumble. The time when it was self-evident to support arms shipments and financial aid to Ukraine is over in many of Europe's leading countries. The longer the war drags on, the more difficult it will be to maintain EU support for Ukraine despite all the words of solidarity spoken in Brussels.

Decisions on sanctions, arms shipments and financial aid to Ukraine require unanimous decisions. It is enough for one country to start opposing the support and the EU's hitherto united front can crack. The more countries where the far-right and pro-Russian parties advance, the more difficult it will be to keep support alive.

Artillery pieces in an American weapons factory. Photo: Matt Rourke/AP

This is happening at the same time as the US is increasingly faltering. Joe Biden continues to oppose Ukraine being allowed to use the weapons sent by the West to attack targets deep inside Russia. This for fear of provoking Russia.

Should Donald Trump also win the presidential election in the United States, large parts of the American support risk being withdrawn.

The result in Austria shows that Europe is facing potentially disruptive changes.