Risk of major war after the attack – Iran in crisis meeting

RIGHT NOW: Mourning the leader

Israel

The expert: Then there will be war in the region

Knut Sahlin Ekberg

Published 14.08

Hassan Nasrallah's death is described as historic.

It could be the last nail in the coffin for Hezbollah - and the conflict with Israel, according to expert Alexander Atoradi.

- Hezbollah is weakened to such an extent that it leads to fragmentation, he says.

For decades he has been a high priority for Israel. Today the military announced that they killed the top leader of the Hezbollah militia - Hassan Nasrallah.

It has been described as a huge win for Israel and a huge setback for Hezbollah and its closest ally Iran.

- This is the biggest thing that has happened in Iran's relationship with Hezbollah. During 40 years, the organization has been built into a major force in the region

That's what Middle East and North Africa expert Alexander Atoradi says.

Now Iran sits and watches how everything they built is demolished.

- And they still haven't formulated a way to respond to Israel.

The dilemma for Iran is that whatever they choose to do, it can have devastating consequences, he believes.

Either you decide to support Hezbollah, the question then is how Israel responds.

- Then we have a regular war in the region which can be really devastating in many ways.

Or Iran chooses not to act. But even that can be devastating, according to Alexander Atoradi.

- You turn your back on your absolute closest ally. And then Hezbollah can be weakened so much that it leads to fragmentation, he says.

 

Hassan Nasrallah. Photo: Hussein Malla / AP

Iran calls for crisis meeting

In other words, it is no wonder that Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has now called a crisis meeting after yesterday's attack. Later on Saturday, information also came that Ali Khamenei had been taken to a safe place in the country.

Is this the end of the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah?

- It could very well be. It is not just about Nasrallah.

He is referring to the many attacks Israel has carried out against Hezbollah in general and commanders in particular recently. Among other things, the pager attack where up to 40 people were killed.

- They have paralyzed all of Hezbollah's communication channels and possibilities for planning.

Destroyed buildings after an Israeli attack in Beirut. Photo: Hussein Malla / AP

"Historic for Hezbollah"

It becomes clear because there has been no extensive retaliation from Hezbollah. It has not been possible because there are no longer any natural paths of communication from the highest state to the lowest. There are no military leaders who can formulate "something that makes sense", explains Alexander Atoradi.

In addition, Israel has knocked out a large part of Hezbollah's military capabilities.

- We can see occasional attacks. But the organization is naturally weakened, and it is historic for Hezbollah.

But you never know, he says.

- Right now the situation is such that the entire political landscape in the Middle East has been redrawn. There are no borders or red lines that we are used to. Everything is completely open.