Donald Trump
Zelensky's panic before the US election is growing
Wolfgang Hansson
This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.
Published 14.06
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- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is desperately seeking more military aid from the United States and approval to use American weapons against targets deep inside Russia, as he warns of the threats Vladimir Putin poses to both Ukraine and the West.
- President Biden is hesitant to authorize the use of US weapons against Russia, which makes it difficult for Zelensky, especially given the upcoming presidential election in which Donald Trump could win and drastically change US support for Ukraine.
- Ukrainian victory seems distant as Russian forces gain ground in the Donbas and several European countries begin to tire of supporting Ukraine financially, while internal political events in both the US and Europe may affect future support.
Ukraine's president has one last chance to get more military aid and a yoke to use US weapons against targets deep inside Russia.
In six weeks, Donald Trump can be elected president again. It can completely turn the conditions for Ukraine upside down.
Zelenskyy is fighting on two fronts.
In his speeches before the Security Council and the UN earlier this week, Volodymyr Zelensky tried to emphasize the danger Vladimir Putin poses to Ukraine and to the West.
Zelenskyy pointed to intelligence reports that Russia is planning an attack on the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant. He pointed out that Russia has already cut off a large part of Ukraine's energy supply ahead of the winter.
He got a little boot from Putin himself who announced that Russia is changing its nuclear doctrine. Nowadays, if a nuclear power supplies another state with conventional weapons that are used for attacks against Russia, the Kremlin reserves the right to respond with nuclear weapons.
A change very clearly linked to Ukraine's request to use long-range American robots against military targets deep inside Russia.
Putin simply wants to scare the US into saying no to Zelensky's request. A tactic that has been successful in the past during the more than 30 months that the war in Ukraine has been going on.
For Zelenskyi, Putin's threat is one of many proofs of how dangerous Russia is and that Putin must be stopped.
President Biden agrees but is at the same time a cautious gentleman. He only has a few months left in office and doesn't want to risk going down in history as the one who started World War III. At the same time, he wants to help Ukraine as much as possible before there can be a change in the presidency.
Therefore, it is doubtful if Zelenskyy, when he meets Biden today, will get a clear yes to use the American weapons against Russia as he wants.
Zelensky is in a precarious position and is becoming increasingly desperate.
The Russians are pushing along the front in Donbas and are slowly but surely gaining ground. Without more support from the West, all of eastern Ukraine risks falling into Putin's hands. Although Biden promises more money for weapons, Zelenskyj is frustrated that the country is forced to fight "with its hands tied behind its back".
Biden doesn't just have his legacy to think about. He also doesn't want to do anything that could harm Kamala Harris's chances of winning the election. A go-ahead to use American weapons deep inside Russia would probably be criticized by Donald Trump and the Republicans. Maybe even retracted if Trump moves into the White House.
At an election rally the other day, Trump raved about how Zelenskyi, whom he called "the world's best salesman", every time he was in the United States goes home with "hundreds of billions of dollars". A violent exaggeration.
He also paints a false picture of Ukraine as a totally destroyed country. He refuses to say if he wants Ukraine to win the war.
Zelenskyj also wanted to meet Trump during his trip to the US, but that meeting does not seem to happen. Trump has met with other foreign leaders on the campaign trail but appears reluctant to meet with Ukraine's president. Perhaps because he criticized Trump's vice-presidential candidate JD Vance's statements about what peace could look like.
After all, Trump has said that he will fix peace in Ukraine even before he takes office in January, if he is elected.
Not least according to JD Vance's words, it is interpreted as Ukraine having to give up the territories that Russia has occupied. Something Zelensky said that Ukraine will never accept.
At the same time, he cannot afford to fall out with Trump. It could be the real estate billionaire he needs to negotiate with in the future for more American aid. From what Trump has said so far, it appears that he will be difficult to persuade.
The opinion polls show a dead race between Harris and Trump. In other words, there is a 50 percent chance that Zelensky's nightmare will come true.
Ukraine's problem is that it is not just the US that is faltering. After so many months of war and large payments to Ukraine, even some countries in Europe are starting to lose patience.
A Ukrainian victory seems very remote at the moment. If the battle for positions at the front continues without anything decisive being discernible, there is an obvious risk that voters in European countries will tire of the war and vote for politicians who want to end it. Regardless of output.
Next autumn there are elections in Germany, among others. Chancellor Olaf Scholz is hanging loose, to say the least.
Things look bleak for Ukraine on more than one front.
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