Hezbollah
Could be the starting signal for a major war
Wolfgang Hansson
This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.
Updated 20.09 | Published 20.04
Quick version
- Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, was killed by Israel, which is believed to trigger a major war in the region, especially given Nasrallah's popularity among Shia Muslims.
- The death is the result of a successful Israeli intelligence operation, which also eliminated several other Hezbollah leaders and caused widespread refugee flows in Lebanon.
- Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has rejected international calls for a
ceasefire and is continuing his offensive against Hezbollah, which could
lead to further military escalations including a possible ground
invasion of southern Lebanon.
If Israel thinks that the fact that it has killed Hezbollah's leader means that the war is over, it is mistaken.
Rather, Hassan Nasrallah's death could be the starting signal for a major war in the region.
Nasrallah was a superhero among Shiites.
Of course, Nasrallah's death is a success for Israel. It is the culmination of a week in which Israel has directed one devastating blow after another against the terror-labeled organization.
It started with the pagers that exploded simultaneously in the faces of a number of leading figures in Hezbollah. An extremely successful intelligence operation even if it teeters on the edge of what is permitted under international law.
Hezbollah was also taken to task by Israel's heavy bombing just a few days later, which knocked out additional members of the organization's leadership and created large refugee flows in Lebanon.
The fact that they managed to both locate Hassan Nasrallah and kill him is also proof of how good intelligence the Israelis have had regarding Hezbollah's leadership.
Reasonably, this means that Hezbollah will be in some form of confused chaos in the near future when both Nasrallah and a number of other important leaders have to be replaced with younger and inexperienced cadres.
Defeat for Iran
The group is likely to find it difficult to immediately retaliate against Israel. But it must be remembered that they have thousands of precision-guided robots that can reach densely populated areas in Israel.
Israel's air defenses, the so-called Iron Dome, will be able to shoot down many of them but not all.
Another decisive factor will be how Iran will now act. Can they sit idly by on the sidelines without acting when their extended arm in Lebanon is exposed to the full military might of Israel? A humiliating defeat for Iran.
Superhero
So far, the impression has been that Iran wants to avoid being drawn into a major war with Israel at all costs. There has still not been revenge for Israel's killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniya in Tehran at the end of the summer. But there is probably a line somewhere where Iran feels it has to act in order not to be seen as weak. It could be in the near future or in the future.
I think we in Europe have a hard time understanding how popular Nasrallah was in Iran, Syria and among Shia Muslims throughout the region.
I visited Syria in connection with the last Lebanon war in 2006. Large idol portraits of Hezbollah's leaders hung from house walls and notice boards. His name was chanted in demonstrations. Newborns were named after him. There were pictures of him in every taxi.
Nasrallah was a superhero for daring to challenge Israel. The West sees him as a terrorist.
Huge anger
That the Jewish state has now killed him will arouse enormous anger among many Shia Muslims. Hatred of Israel will become even more white-hot.
Over the years, Israel has killed many Hamas leaders without the Palestinian organization being weakened as a result. On the contrary, last year they succeeded in putting Israel to bed through the biggest terrorist attack that the country has been subjected to.
Much suggests that the same thing will now happen in Hezbollah. Once the Iran-backed organization has licked its wounds, it will be more determined than ever to fight Israel.
Disobey Biden
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seems to be the only leader in the region who does not mind a major war. On the contrary, he does everything to provoke it.
When the US two days ago called for a 21-day ceasefire in Lebanon, President Joe Biden thought Israel was on board. Instead, Netanyahu rejected the proposal, once again defying the American president. He even traveled to the United Nations in New York to state in an uncompromising speech to the General Assembly that Israel intends to continue striking Hezbollah until the group can no longer bombard northern Israel with rockets.
Nasrallah's portrait is held up by a woman in Iran. Photo: Vahid Salemi / AP
Strong opponent
Netanyahu seems intent on trying to crush Hezbollah in the same way he tried to erase Hamas' ability to strike at Israel. However, Hezbollah is a much stronger opponent. You have more advanced weapons and a more well-trained army.
It is unlikely that Israel can end the group's shelling of northern Israel unless a ceasefire is achieved. The conditions for such do not look very good after the elimination of Nasrallah. After all, he wasn't the only one killed in the attack when six apartment buildings were razed to the ground. It is likely that many civilian casualties were claimed.
With Nasrallah's death, Netanyahu strengthens his position at home. The offensive against Hezbollah is more popular than the war against Hamas because they are still holding large numbers of Israelis hostage. Many Israelis are angry that Netanyahu has not agreed to a truce so it can be released.
The question is whether his next step will be a ground invasion of southern Lebanon to push back Hezbollah further north and make it more difficult for them to reach Israel with their fire.
Netanyahu's promise is that the roughly 60,000 Israelis who were forced to flee northern Israel should be able to return. It remains to be seen whether that goal has really been approached by the elimination of Nasrallah.
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