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Iran has invested heavily in Hezbollah, which has now suffered its
worst setback with the death of its leader and noticeable signs of
weakness, but Tehran has yet to react concretely.
Israel's success against Hezbollah could reshape the balance of power in
the Middle East, which Iran must consider in order not to lose
influence among its proxy groups.
Iran, which is accused of seeking nuclear weapons, could increase its
efforts to acquire them as a security measure if it feels threatened,
which would negatively affect the balance of power in the region.
Iran test-fires the Khorramshahr-4 ballistic missile on May 25, 2023. Photo: AP
So far, it has been strangely quiet from Tehran following the death of Hezbollah leader Nasrallah.
Is Iran about to sell out its old ally or are they just waiting for the right opportunity to retaliate?
There is a risk that a weakened Iran will get serious about its plans to acquire nuclear weapons.
It is still too early to make any final evaluation. But Israel's unusually successful attacks against Hezbollah and its leadership may be about to overturn the balance of power in the Middle East.
Iran has long controlled the Israel resistance in the region with the help of its proxy groups in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Iraq.
Hezbollah's biggest setback
Now suddenly Hezbollah, probably the most powerful non-state actor in the world, has suffered its worst setback since the organization was founded in the 80s. Large parts of the leadership are affected by the pager attacks and the mythical leader Hassan Nasrallah is dead.
According to the IDF, Hezbollah's headquarters in Beirut must have been in the basement of the building that was bombed on Friday. Photo: Hussein Malla / AP
Iran has invested countless billions of kroner in building up the Hezbollah militia and providing them with advanced weapons. Still, reactions to the crackdown on the group are strikingly restrained from Iran's ayatollahs.
Nasrallah was killed on Friday. But still Iran has not retaliated.
Chaos and confusion
True, Hezbollah continues to fire rockets at Israel, but very few of them are advanced homing robots. This despite the fact that Hezbollah is believed to have thousands at its disposal. If you fired enough of them at once, you would overwhelm the Israeli air defenses and could cause great damage in Israel.
That there is chaos and confusion within Hezbollah is easy to understand, but for Iran it should be important to show some form of concrete support for its support team that it has spent so much time, energy and money building up.
A wreath with the slain Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is hung on a house in the Iranian capital, Tehran, on Monday. Photo: Vahid Salemi / AP
Signs of weakness
How else is it to be interpreted by the other proxy groups such as the militias in Syria and the Houthi rebels in Yemen?
The proxy groups are extremely important for Iran's position as a regional power. Countries like arch-enemy Saudi Arabia will interpret it as a noticeable sign of weakness if Iran does not act in any way against Israel.
When Israel bombed the Iranian consulate in Damascus earlier this year, Iran responded after a few weeks by sending more than 300 robots against Israel. But it announced its attack and thus gave Israel the opportunity to shoot down most of the robots. Everything to avoid an escalation.
The Israeli Iron Dome air defense system fires at Iranian drones in April. Photo: Sam Mednick / AP
Should a similar attack be directed at Israel again without warning, a strong response from Israel must be expected. Therefore, Iran may not dare to retaliate.
Possibly, the Islamic regime in Tehran is finding it difficult to decide how to act without the consequence being the big war in the region that everyone fears but at the same time says they want to avoid.
Popular resistance
Perhaps the answer will eventually come in the form of an act of terrorism directed against Israeli interests somewhere in the world. A Jewish center and the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires were attacked in 1992 when a truck bomb exploded outside. Iran was singled out as the culprit, but it was agents from Hezbollah who carried out the deed.
It came a month after Israel killed then-Hezbollah leader Abbas al-Musawi. In retrospect, it was hardly an assassination that in any way weakened Hezbollah.
One reason why Iran hesitates to retaliate may be internal contradictions within the leadership and the powerful Revolutionary Guard. Both know that there is great popular resistance among large groups in Iran against the Islamist rule. Perhaps the regime is afraid of being overthrown if it is drawn into a major war with Israel.
Beirut on Friday night. Photo: Hussein Malla / AP
Nuclear weapons
The change in power relations that Israel's offensive against Hezbollah appears to have brought about can also have far-reaching security policy consequences.
Iran has long been accused of trying to acquire nuclear weapons. The regime denies it, but the world believes it has overwhelming evidence of the country's intentions. Since Donald Trump terminated the nuclear deal in 2018, Iran has increased its production of highly enriched uranium.
Iran's leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Photo: AP
International experts regularly warn that Iran is only months away from being able to build nuclear weapons. Since UN experts can no longer inspect Iran's nuclear energy facilities as before, it is difficult to know what the situation is.
Israel has previously had plans to attack Iran's nuclear energy facilities. Now that things are going Israel's way, Netanyahu may even be prepared to attack Iran.
If the Iranian regime feels its existence is threatened, the risk of going ahead with the nuclear weapons plans increases. The aim is to obtain a security guarantee and at the same time increase its ability to threaten Israel. In terms of conventional warfare, it is clear that Iran is no match for Israel.
Dangerous change
If Iran acquires nuclear weapons, it means a very dangerous change in the balance of power in the region. Then Saudi Arabia would immediately start developing nuclear weapons as well.
So even if there is silence from Iran in the near future, it is no guarantee that we will not see a dangerous escalation in the future.
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