The alarming signal - start negotiating

 

Ukraine
Is Germany about to turn on Ukraine?

Wolfgang Hansson

This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.

Published 21.37

Volodymyr Zelenskyj and Olaf Scholz met at the beginning of September. Photo: Boris Roessler / AP

In the course of a few days, Olaf Scholz has repeatedly demanded that peace negotiations must be started to end the war in Ukraine.

With Russia at the negotiating table.

It is hard not to perceive it as a signal that Germany is approaching a border where it is no longer obvious to send weapons and money to Ukraine.

Until recently, the mantra broadcast by Western leaders has been that it is Ukraine and no one else who must decide when they are ready to negotiate peace. And under what conditions it must take place.

It no longer sounds like that from Europe's richest and most powerful country.

In an interview with the German television company ZDF and in other forums, Chancellor Scholz has stated that it is time to start peace negotiations. He also wants Russia to be part of those talks. This is in contrast to the peace conference in Switzerland that Ukrainian President Zelenskyi invited earlier this year. Then everyone was invited – except Russia.

- The time has come when we have to discuss how we can get out of the war faster than now seems to be the case, says Scholz to ZDF.

A statement that is harshly criticized by the Christian Democratic opposition for being offensive to Putin.

The timing of Scholz's announcement is interesting and important.

Lost election

Just over a week ago, his Social Democrats scored a bottom in the state elections in Saxony and Thuringia. The two parties that had the most success of the far-right Alternative for Germany, AfD, and the left-wing populist fringe party Bundis Sarah Wagenknecht, BSW.

Both of these parties went to the polls on stopping arms deliveries to Ukraine and opening peace negotiations with Russia.

Next week there are elections in another state in eastern Germany, Brandenburg, where a similar election result is expected.

In a year, there will be elections for the German parliament. If Scholz sticks to his old Ukraine policy, there is a big risk that his party will lose the election.

So it's hard to know if Scholz's new line is a rash of personal convictions because of how it looks on the battlefield and all the money the war is costing Germany. Or if it is a tactical positioning to reduce the risks of a big loss in the election next autumn.

The fringe parties went to the polls to stop arms deliveries to Ukraine and achieved great success in the German state elections. Photo: Stefan Jerrevång

Regardless, it's troubling news for Ukraine. Zelenskyy also wants peace talks, but for him it is of the utmost importance that Russia is not allowed to set the conditions.

He has nothing against Scholz and other Western leaders pressuring Putin to agree to peace negotiations - as long as Ukraine's territorial integrity is always in focus.

Trump refused to answer

In statements, it has sounded as if Scholz may accept a peace even if it means that Russian troops remain on Ukrainian territory. That is not what Ukraine wants.

Scholz's reversal comes in a very sensitive situation.

There are only 50 days left until the US presidential election. In yesterday's debate, Donald Trump did not want to answer the question if he wants Ukraine to win the war. He got it twice and said he wants to end the war to stop the killing.

Donald Trump claims he can resolve peace in Ukraine in 24 hours if he becomes president. Photo: Susan Walsh/AP

The ex-president has previously signaled that he is not interested in continuing to support Ukraine with large amounts of weapons and money. His running mate JD Vance's stance is that he "doesn't care what happens to Ukraine".

Unfortunately, that's probably a view shared by an increasing number of Americans.

Trump continues to claim that he can end the war in 24 hours because he has such a good relationship with Putin. It can only be interpreted in one way.

Iran is sending robots

If Trump becomes president, he will pressure Ukraine to agree to a peace deal that would require them to cede territory to Russia. Otherwise, Putin will never agree to stop fighting.

In such a situation, it becomes especially important that Europe sticks together and increases its support to compensate for the American that is disappearing.

Unfortunately, I don't think that will happen. The new tone from Scholz instead shows that more countries in Europe will probably follow suit. Macron's position in France is greatly weakened. There, too, there are strong pro-Putin parties that are pushing for negotiations.

Support for Ukraine is strongest in the Baltics, the Nordics and Poland. It's hardly enough to scrape together enough weapons and money.

Fires in Lviv after a shock attack in early September. Photo: Lviv City Council / AP

However, all is not dark for Ukraine. There are many indications that the United States and Great Britain will authorize the use of long-range weapons to attack military targets deep inside Russia. It would give Ukraine even greater opportunities to take the war to Russia and thus also hopefully increase Putin's appetite to end the war.

As usual, Russia threatens countermeasures, but the West has stopped trembling in the face of Russian rhetoric. It is no longer believed that Putin is prepared to use nuclear weapons unless Russia's existence is threatened.

Can give good position

The fact that Iran appears to be supplying Russia with long-range robots, at least that is what the US claims, is a new argument for lifting restrictions on how Ukraine can use the most advanced weapons.

Ukraine already keeps parts of Kursk inside Russia. If they succeed in knocking out Russian airbases and other military installations further into Russia, it could at best hasten an end to the war and put Ukraine in a good position for peace talks.